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Compare · RIOT vs MSTR · 2026

Riot Platforms vs MicroStrategy

A year of returns, risk, and volatility, compared.

Riot Platforms (RIOT) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) are compared across trailing return, volatility, drawdown, and risk-adjusted metrics.

Last updated:

Analysis period: 2025-04-25 to 2026-04-23

Gale Finance Team
Written by Gale Finance Team
Sid Kalla
Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder
Quick answer

Which is a better investment: RIOT or MSTR?

Over the past year, RIOT outperformed MSTR. RIOT returned +134.4% compared with MSTR’s -53.2%. RIOT had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.40 versus MSTR’s -0.84. MSTR was less volatile than RIOT, but RIOT had a smaller max drawdown than MSTR.

Total Return
RIOT +134.4%
MSTR -53.2%
Sharpe Ratio
RIOT 1.40
MSTR -0.84
Annualized Volatility
RIOT 82.8%
MSTR 68.5%
Max Drawdown
RIOT -48.6%
MSTR -76.5%

Metric winners: Total Return: RIOT; Sharpe Ratio: RIOT; Annualized Volatility: MSTR (less volatile); Max Drawdown: RIOT (smaller drawdown).

RIOT Total Return
↑ +134.4%
MSTR Total Return
↓ -53.2%

Relative Performance of RIOT vs MSTR (Normalized to 100)

RIOT MSTR

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

7 events in this period
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Key Takeaways

  • Total Return: RIOT delivered a +134.4% total return, while MSTR returned -53.2% over the same period. RIOT outperformed on total returns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): MSTR had a negative Sharpe (-0.84) while RIOT was positive (1.40), indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
  • Volatility (Annualized): RIOT was more volatile, with 82.8% annualized volatility, versus 68.5% for MSTR.
  • Maximum Drawdown: RIOT's maximum drawdown was -48.6%, while MSTR experienced a deeper drawdown of -76.5%.
  • Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), RIOT's VaR was -7.92% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -10.75%; MSTR's were -7.25% and -9.24%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
  • Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: RIOT -0.10 vs MSTR 0.33. Excess kurtosis: RIOT 0.94 vs MSTR 4.02. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
  • Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): RIOT 5/6, MSTR 5/6. Worst day: RIOT -17.75% (2025-08-01) vs MSTR -17.12% (2026-02-05). Best day: RIOT +19.82% (2026-02-06) vs MSTR +26.11% (2026-02-06).
  • Risk ratios: Sortino - RIOT: 2.17 vs. MSTR: -1.21 , Calmar - RIOT: 2.79 vs. MSTR: -0.70 , Sterling - RIOT: 5.86 vs. MSTR: -1.28 , Treynor - RIOT: 0.30 vs. MSTR: -0.22 , Ulcer Index - RIOT: 24.27% vs. MSTR: 47.41%
Related:Bitcoin vs Riot Platforms·Cipher Mining vs Riot Platforms·Riot Platforms vs Iris Energy

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

RIOT $23,436.29 +134.4%
MSTR $4,677.66 -53.2%

Difference: $18,758.63 (RIOT ahead)

Riot Platforms vs MicroStrategy Performance Over Time

Metric RIOT MSTR
30 Days 27.1% 26.6%
90 Days 5.4% 5.7%
180 Days -15% -40.3%
1 Year 134.4% -53.2%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Riot Platforms vs MicroStrategy Correlation

Average Correlation
moderately correlated
0.57
Current (30-day) 0.62
30-day rolling range +0.26 to +0.87

Riot Platforms and MicroStrategy are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.57, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric Value
Current (30-day) 0.62
Average (full period) 0.57
Minimum (30-day rolling) 0.26
Maximum (30-day rolling) 0.87

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown
RIOT
-48.6%
MSTR
-76.5%

Riot Platforms experienced its maximum drawdown of -48.6% from 2025-10-27 to 2026-03-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

MicroStrategy experienced its maximum drawdown of -76.5% from 2025-07-16 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Riot Platforms vs MicroStrategy Volatility (RIOT vs MSTR)

RIOT Volatility
82.8%
±5.21% 1-day vol
MSTR Volatility
68.5%
±4.31% 1-day vol
1-day volatility (1σ)
RIOT
±5.21%
MSTR
±4.31%

Riot Platforms's 82.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±5.21% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

MicroStrategy's 68.5% annualized volatility translates to about ±4.31% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

RIOT had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; MSTR was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of RIOT and MSTR

Sharpe Ratio: RIOT vs. MSTR

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better
Excess return Annualized volatility 0 100% vol 82.8% · excess +116.2% vol 68.5% · excess -57.9%
excess return / total volatility
Formula Sharpe=E[R]−RfσR\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. MSTR had a negative Sharpe (-0.84) while RIOT was positive (1.40), indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of RIOT and MSTR

Sortino Ratio: RIOT vs. MSTR

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better
Frequency (days) Daily return (%) target -19.5% +27.9% 40 0
excess return / downside volatility
Formula Sortino=E[R]−Rfσdown\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). RIOT had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: RIOT 53.5% vs MSTR 48.0%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of RIOT and MSTR

Calmar Ratio: RIOT vs. MSTR

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better
0% RIOT +135.6% -48.6% MSTR -53.4% -76.5%
CAGR / max drawdown
Formula Calmar=CAGR∣MaxDD∣\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. RIOT posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of RIOT and MSTR

Sterling Ratio: RIOT vs. MSTR

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better
0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 10% drawdown threshold
excess annual return / average deep drawdown
Formula Sterling=CAGR−RfD‾>10%\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). RIOT posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of RIOT and MSTR

Treynor Ratio: RIOT vs. MSTR

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better
Asset return Market return 0 0 β 3.83 β 2.61
excess return / market beta
Formula Treynor=E[R]−Rfβ\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. RIOT posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of RIOT and MSTR

Ulcer Index: RIOT vs. MSTR

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better
0% -20% -40% -60% -80%
root-mean-square drawdown
Formula UI=E[Dt2]\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. RIOT had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Riot Platforms vs. MicroStrategy

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right) so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: RIOT vs. MSTR (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns
RIOT VaR 5% ES 5% MSTR VaR 5% ES 5% -26.9% 0% +26.9% Daily log return
VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.
Formula VaR5%=Q0.05(rt),ES5%=E[rt∣rt≤VaR5%]\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]
Metric (1-Year) RIOT MSTR
5% VaR (daily log return) -7.92% -7.25%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -10.75% (worst 13 days) -9.24% (worst 13 days)
Skew -0.10 0.33
Excess kurtosis 0.94 4.02
2σ tail days (down / up) 5 / 6 5 / 6
Worst day -17.75% (2025-08-01) -17.12% (2026-02-05)
Best day +19.82% (2026-02-06) +26.11% (2026-02-06)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: RIOT vs. MSTR (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both RIOT and MSTR crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ
-2σ MSTR -2σ RIOT Joint downside zone -21.4% 0% +21.4% +22.3% 0% -22.3% MSTR daily log return RIOT daily log return
Shared daily return 249
RIOT Downside threshold -10.03%
MSTR Downside threshold -8.85%
Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both RIOT and MSTR had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval) RIOT MSTR
2025-08-01 -17.75% -8.77%
2026-02-05 -14.71% -17.12%

Days when RIOT had a big down day

Date (interval) RIOT MSTR
2025-08-01 -17.75% -8.77%
2025-10-16 -11.66% -4.35%
2025-11-13 -10.22% -7.15%
2025-12-12 → 2025-12-15 -10.39% -8.14%
2026-02-05 -14.71% -17.12%

Days when MSTR had a big down day

Date (interval) RIOT MSTR
2025-08-01 -17.75% -8.77%
2025-10-07 -0.42% -8.70%
2025-11-19 -4.23% -9.82%
2026-01-29 -3.30% -9.63%
2026-02-05 -14.71% -17.12%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Riot Platforms vs. MicroStrategy (1-Year)

Metric RIOT MSTR
Total Return +134.4% -53.2%
Annualized Volatility 82.8% 68.5%
Sharpe Ratio 1.40 -0.84
Sortino Ratio 2.17 -1.21
Calmar Ratio 2.79 -0.70
Sterling Ratio 5.86 -1.28
Treynor Ratio 0.30 -0.22
Ulcer Index 24.27% 47.41%
Max Drawdown -48.6% -76.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500 0.53 0.46
5% VaR (daily log return) -7.92% -7.25%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -10.75% -9.24%
Skew -0.10 0.33
Excess kurtosis 0.94 4.02
2σ tail days (down / up) 5 / 6 5 / 6
Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics
2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes)
220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year)
RIOT: 252 days/year; MSTR: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate
Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:
  • RIOT: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
  • MSTR: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb)
Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.
  • RIOT: ≈ -34.3%/yr
  • MSTR: ≈ -23.5%/yr
Data alignment
No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions
Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return
rt=PtPt−1−1r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1
Volatility
σann=σ(rt)A\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}
Volatility drag (approx.)
drag≈12σann2\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2
Sharpe Ratio
S=A rˉ−rfσ(rt)AS = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}
Sortino Ratio
So=A rˉ−rfE[min⁡(0, rt−rf/A)2] ASo = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}
Maximum Drawdown
MDD=min⁡t(Ptmax⁡s≤tPs−1)MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)
Average Correlation
ρ=cov⁡(rA, rB)σA σB\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}
Log returns
ℓt=ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)
Notation
PtP_t
Price on day t.
rtr_t
Simple daily return.
ℓt\ell_t
Log daily return.
rˉ\bar{r}
Average daily return.
σ(rt)\sigma(r_t)
Standard deviation of daily returns.
AA
Annualization factor (days/year).
rfr_f
Annual risk-free rate.

Riot Platforms vs MicroStrategy: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: RIOT or MSTR?

RIOT showed higher volatility at 82.8% annualized, compared to 68.5% for MSTR Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does RIOT provide diversification when held with MSTR?

RIOT and MSTR are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.57. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for RIOT vs MSTR?

Over the past year, RIOT's 5% VaR was -7.92% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -10.75% (worst 13 days). MSTR's were -7.25% and -9.24% (worst 13 days).

Do RIOT and MSTR crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when MSTR has a 2σ down day, RIOT also does 40.0% (2/5 days). In the other direction, when RIOT has one, MSTR also does 40.0% (2/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: RIOT or MSTR?

MSTR had a negative Sharpe (-0.84) while RIOT was positive (1.40) Over the past year, indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can RIOT and MSTR be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. RIOT's higher volatility (82.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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