Silver vs Silver ETF (XAG vs SLV) 2026: Commodity Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: XAG or SLV?

Over the past year, it depends: XAG led on total return (XAG +128.4% vs SLV +127.6%), but SLV had the higher Sharpe ratio (SLV 1.69 vs XAG 1.66). On risk, XAG was less volatile (XAG 56.9% vs SLV 57.3%), XAG had a smaller max drawdown (XAG -41.9% vs SLV -42.5%), and XAG had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of XAG -9.75% vs SLV -9.85%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: XAG or SLV?

Over the past year, XAG outperformed SLV. XAG returned +128.4% compared with SLV’s +127.6%. SLV had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.69 versus XAG’s 1.66. XAG was less volatile than SLV, and XAG had a smaller max drawdown than SLV.

Total Return

XAG +128.4%

SLV +127.6%

Sharpe Ratio

XAG 1.66

SLV 1.69

Annualized Volatility

XAG 56.9%

SLV 57.3%

Max Drawdown

XAG -41.9%

SLV -42.5%

Metric winners: Total Return: XAG; Sharpe Ratio: SLV; Annualized Volatility: XAG (less volatile); Max Drawdown: XAG (smaller drawdown).

XAG Total Return

↑ +128.4%

SLV Total Return

↑ +127.6%

Relative Performance of XAG vs SLV (Normalized to 100)

XAG SLV

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Trade XAG or SLV

Access these assets on trusted platforms.

Hyperliquid

Trade perpetual futures exposure where supportedXAGSLVTrade on Hyperliquid

Binance

Trade futures exposure on a global exchange where supportedXAGSLVTrade on Binance

Affiliate disclosure

Key Takeaways

Total Return: XAG delivered a +128.4% total return, while SLV returned +127.6% over the same period. XAG outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SLV had a higher Sharpe (1.69 vs 1.66), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): SLV was more volatile, with 57.3% annualized volatility, versus 56.9% for XAG.
Maximum Drawdown: XAG's maximum drawdown was -41.9%, while SLV experienced a deeper drawdown of -42.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAG's VaR was -4.23% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.75%; SLV's were -4.53% and -9.85%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAG -3.40 vs SLV -3.36. Excess kurtosis: XAG 26.41 vs SLV 26.12. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAG 7/2, SLV 6/2. Worst day: XAG -28.03% (2026-01-30) vs SLV -28.54% (2026-01-30). Best day: XAG +9.19% (2026-02-06) vs SLV +9.05% (2025-12-26).
Risk ratios: Sortino - XAG: 2.17 vs. SLV: 2.20 , Calmar - XAG: 3.09 vs. SLV: 3.03 , Sterling - XAG: 4.54 vs. SLV: 4.43 , Treynor - XAG: 0.94 vs. SLV: 0.96 , Ulcer Index - XAG: 16.20% vs. SLV: 16.09%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

XAG $22,835.31 +128.4%

SLV $22,755.41 +127.6%

Difference: $79.9 (XAG ahead)

Silver vs Silver ETF Performance Over Time

Metric	XAG	SLV
30 Days	5.9%	8.6%
90 Days	-26.4%	-26.4%
180 Days	55.5%	55.4%
1 Year	128.4%	127.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Silver vs Silver ETF Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.98

Current (30-day) 0.94

30-day rolling range +0.94 to +1.00

Silver and Silver ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.98, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both XAG and SLV provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.94
Average (full period)	0.98
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.94
Maximum (30-day rolling)	1.00

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

XAG

-41.9%

SLV

-42.5%

Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -41.9% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Silver ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -42.5% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-03-26. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Silver vs Silver ETF Volatility (XAG vs SLV)

XAG Volatility

56.9%

±3.59% 1-day vol

SLV Volatility

57.3%

±3.61% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

XAG

±3.59%

SLV

±3.61%

Silver's 56.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.59% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Silver ETF's 57.3% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.61% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

SLV had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; XAG was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SLV

Sharpe Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SLV had a higher Sharpe (1.69 vs 1.66), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of XAG and SLV

Sortino Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SLV had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: XAG 43.4% vs SLV 43.9%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of XAG and SLV

Calmar Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. XAG posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of XAG and SLV

Sterling Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). XAG posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of XAG and SLV

Treynor Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. SLV posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of XAG and SLV

Ulcer Index: XAG vs. SLV

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SLV had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Silver ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: XAG vs. SLV (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	XAG	SLV
5% VaR (daily log return)	-4.23%	-4.53%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.75% (worst 13 days)	-9.85% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-3.40	-3.36
Excess kurtosis	26.41	26.12
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 2	6 / 2
Worst day	-28.03% (2026-01-30)	-28.54% (2026-01-30)
Best day	+9.19% (2026-02-06)	+9.05% (2025-12-26)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: XAG vs. SLV (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both XAG and SLV crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both XAG and SLV had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	XAG	SLV
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-8.24%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-7.19%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-28.54%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-15.77%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-11.53%
2026-03-03	-8.17%	-8.45%

Days when XAG had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SLV
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-8.24%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-7.19%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-28.54%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-15.77%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-11.53%
2026-03-03	-8.17%	-8.45%
2026-03-20	-7.09%	-6.33%

Days when SLV had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SLV
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-8.24%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-7.19%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-28.54%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-15.77%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-11.53%
2026-03-03	-8.17%	-8.45%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Silver vs. Silver ETF (1-Year)

Metric	XAG	SLV
Total Return	+128.4%	+127.6%
Annualized Volatility	56.9%	57.3%
Sharpe Ratio	1.66	1.69
Sortino Ratio	2.17	2.20
Calmar Ratio	3.09	3.03
Sterling Ratio	4.54	4.43
Treynor Ratio	0.94	0.96
Ulcer Index	16.20%	16.09%
Max Drawdown	-41.9%	-42.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.16	0.16
5% VaR (daily log return)	-4.23%	-4.53%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.75%	-9.85%
Skew	-3.40	-3.36
Excess kurtosis	26.41	26.12
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 2	6 / 2

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): XAG: 252 days/year; SLV: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

XAG: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.

SLV: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

XAG: ≈ -16.2%/yr

SLV: ≈ -16.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Silver vs Silver ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XAG or SLV?

SLV showed higher volatility at 57.3% annualized, compared to 56.9% for XAG Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does XAG provide diversification when held with SLV?

XAG and SLV are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.98. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SLV?

Over the past year, XAG's 5% VaR was -4.23% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.75% (worst 13 days). SLV's were -4.53% and -9.85% (worst 13 days).

Do XAG and SLV crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SLV has a 2σ down day, XAG also does 100.0% (6/6 days). In the other direction, when XAG has one, SLV also does 85.7% (6/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SLV?

SLV showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.69 versus XAG's 1.66 Over the past year.

Can XAG and SLV be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. SLV's higher volatility (57.3%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: XAG or SLV?

Share This Comparison of XAG vs SLV

Relative Performance of XAG vs SLV (Normalized to 100)

Trade XAG or SLV

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Silver vs Silver ETF Performance Over Time

Silver vs Silver ETF Correlation

Drawdown

Silver vs Silver ETF Volatility (XAG vs SLV)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SLV

Sharpe Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Sortino Ratio of XAG and SLV

Sortino Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Calmar Ratio of XAG and SLV

Calmar Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Sterling Ratio of XAG and SLV

Sterling Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Treynor Ratio of XAG and SLV

Treynor Ratio: XAG vs. SLV

Ulcer Index of XAG and SLV

Ulcer Index: XAG vs. SLV

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Silver ETF

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: XAG vs. SLV (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: XAG vs. SLV (2σ)

Days when both XAG and SLV had a big down day (2σ)

Days when XAG had a big down day

Days when SLV had a big down day

Full Comparison of Silver vs. Silver ETF (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Silver vs Silver ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XAG or SLV?

Does XAG provide diversification when held with SLV?

How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SLV?

Do XAG and SLV crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SLV?

Can XAG and SLV be combined in a portfolio?