XAG vs SIL: Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: XAG or SIL?

Over the past year, SIL looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (SIL +231.7% vs XAG +185.4%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (SIL 2.76 vs XAG 2.12). On risk, SIL was less volatile (SIL 46.6% vs XAG 54.5%), SIL had a smaller max drawdown (SIL -22.1% vs XAG -39.3%), and SIL had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SIL -7.52% vs XAG -9.35%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: XAG or SIL?

Over the past year, SIL outperformed (+185.4% vs +231.7%) with a Sharpe ratio of 2.76.

Total Return

XAG +185.4%

SIL WIN +231.7%

Sharpe Ratio

XAG 2.12

SIL WIN 2.76

Annualized Volatility

XAG 54.5%

SIL WIN 46.6%

Max Drawdown

XAG -39.3%

SIL WIN -22.1%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

XAG Total Return

↑ +185.4%

SIL Total Return

↑ +231.7%

Relative Performance of XAG vs SIL (Normalized to 100)

XAG SIL

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: XAG delivered a +185.4% total return, while SIL returned +231.7% over the same period. SIL outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SIL had a higher Sharpe (2.76 vs 2.12), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): XAG was more volatile, with 54.5% annualized volatility, versus 46.6% for SIL.
Maximum Drawdown: SIL's maximum drawdown was -22.1%, while XAG experienced a deeper drawdown of -39.3%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), XAG's VaR was -3.37% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.35%; SIL's were -4.12% and -7.52%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: XAG -3.87 vs SIL -1.23. Excess kurtosis: XAG 31.74 vs SIL 5.04. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): XAG 6/3, SIL 8/1. Worst day: XAG -28.03% (2026-01-30) vs SIL -14.78% (2026-01-30). Best day: XAG +9.19% (2026-02-06) vs SIL +8.86% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - XAG: 2.78 vs. SIL: 4.03 , Calmar - XAG: 4.77 vs. SIL: 10.59 , Sterling - XAG: 8.28 vs. SIL: 11.83 , Treynor - XAG: 1.96 vs. SIL: 2.02 , Ulcer Index - XAG: 9.41% vs. SIL: 7.07%

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Correlation

0.78 Average Correlation

Silver and Global X Silver Miners ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.78, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both XAG and SIL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.89
Average (full period)	0.78
Minimum	0.54
Maximum	0.91

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

XAG $28,536.7 +185.4%

SIL $33,170.1 +231.7%

Difference: $4,633.4 (SIL ahead)

Silver and Global X Silver Miners ETF: Risk Analysis

Silver experienced its maximum drawdown of -39.3% from 2026-01-28 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Global X Silver Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -22.1% from 2025-10-16 to 2025-11-04. It took 37 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of XAG and SIL

XAG Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.12

SIL Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.76

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SIL had a higher Sharpe (2.76 vs 2.12), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of XAG and SIL

XAG Sortino Ratio

↑ 2.78

SIL Sortino Ratio

↑ 4.03

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SIL had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: XAG 41.5% vs SIL 31.9%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of XAG and SIL

XAG Calmar Ratio

↑ 4.77

SIL Calmar Ratio

↑ 10.59

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. SIL posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of XAG and SIL

XAG Sterling Ratio

↑ 8.28

SIL Sterling Ratio

↑ 11.83

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). SIL posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of XAG and SIL

XAG Treynor Ratio

↑ 1.96

SIL Treynor Ratio

↑ 2.02

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. SIL posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of XAG and SIL

XAG Ulcer Index

9.41%

SIL Ulcer Index

7.07%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SIL had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	XAG	SIL
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.37%	-4.12%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.35% (worst 13 days)	-7.52% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-3.87	-1.23
Excess kurtosis	31.74	5.04
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 3	8 / 1
Worst day	-28.03% (2026-01-30)	-14.78% (2026-01-30)
Best day	+9.19% (2026-02-06)	+8.86% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When SIL has a big down day, XAG also does

50.0%

4 / 8 days

When XAG has a big down day, SIL also does

80.0%

4 / 5 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both XAG and SIL had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	XAG	SIL
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-10.86%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-14.78%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-7.63%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-8.11%

Days when XAG had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SIL
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-10.86%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29	-8.02%	-5.29%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-14.78%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-7.63%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-8.11%

Days when SIL had a big down day

Date (interval)	XAG	SIL
2025-04-04	-6.64%	-10.03%
2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12	-0.48%	-6.55%
2025-10-17	-4.40%	-7.68%
2025-10-21	-7.10%	-10.86%
2025-11-20	-1.37%	-5.39%
2026-01-30	-28.03%	-14.78%
2026-02-05	-19.55%	-7.63%
2026-02-12	-10.66%	-8.11%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Volatility (XAG vs SIL)

XAG Volatility

54.5%

±3.43% daily

SIL Volatility

46.6%

±2.93% daily

Typical daily swing

XAG

±3.43%

SIL

±2.93%

Silver's annualized volatility of 54.5% means it typically moves ±3.43% on any given day.

Global X Silver Miners ETF's annualized volatility of 46.6% means it typically moves ±2.93% on any given day.

XAG's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while SIL's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF Performance Over Time

Metric	XAG	SIL
30 Days	-14%	1.1%
90 Days	67.1%	56%
180 Days	124%	97%
1 Year	185.4%	231.7%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Silver vs. Global X Silver Miners ETF (1-Year)

Metric	XAG	SIL
Total Return	+185.4%	+231.7%
Annualized Volatility	54.5%	46.6%
Sharpe Ratio	2.12	2.76
Sortino Ratio	2.78	4.03
Calmar Ratio	4.77	10.59
Sterling Ratio	8.28	11.83
Treynor Ratio	1.96	2.02
Ulcer Index	9.41%	7.07%
Max Drawdown	-39.3%	-22.1%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.14	0.19
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.37%	-4.12%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.35%	-7.52%
Skew	-3.87	-1.23
Excess kurtosis	31.74	5.04
2σ tail days (down / up)	6 / 3	8 / 1

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): XAG: 252 days/year; SIL: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

XAG: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.

SIL: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

XAG: ≈ -14.9%/yr

SIL: ≈ -10.9%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Silver vs Global X Silver Miners ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: XAG or SIL?

XAG showed higher volatility at 54.5% annualized, compared to 46.6% for SIL Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does XAG provide diversification when held with SIL?

XAG and SIL are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.78. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for XAG vs SIL?

Over the past year, XAG's 5% VaR was -3.37% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.35% (worst 13 days). SIL's were -4.12% and -7.52% (worst 13 days).

Do XAG and SIL crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SIL has a 2σ down day, XAG also does 50.0% (4/8 days). In the other direction, when XAG has one, SIL also does 80.0% (4/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: XAG or SIL?

SIL showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.76 versus XAG's 2.12 Over the past year.

Can XAG and SIL be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. XAG's higher volatility (54.5%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.