SOL vs TSLA: Returns, Risk & Volatility (2022)

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Analysis period: 2022-01-01 to 2022-12-31

SOL Total Return

↓ -94.2%

TSLA Total Return

↓ -69.2%

Relative Performance of SOL vs TSLA (Normalized to 100)

SOL TSLA

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: SOL delivered a -94.2% total return, while TSLA returned -69.2% over the same period. TSLA outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (TSLA -1.55 vs SOL -1.85), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; TSLA was less negative.
Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 117.6% annualized volatility, versus 65.3% for TSLA.
Maximum Drawdown: TSLA's maximum drawdown was -72.7%, while SOL experienced a deeper drawdown of -94.3%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), SOL's VaR was -10.72% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -16.29%; TSLA's were -7.44% and -9.60%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: SOL -1.79 vs TSLA -0.27. Excess kurtosis: SOL 14.13 vs TSLA 0.19. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): SOL 7/5, TSLA 8/3. Worst day: SOL -42.28% (2022-11-09) vs TSLA -12.18% (2022-04-26). Best day: SOL +26.83% (2022-11-10) vs TSLA +10.68% (2022-01-31).
Risk ratios: Sortino - SOL: -2.35 vs. TSLA: -2.00 , Calmar - SOL: N/A vs. TSLA: N/A , Sterling - SOL: N/A vs. TSLA: N/A , Treynor - SOL: N/A vs. TSLA: N/A , Ulcer Index - SOL: N/A vs. TSLA: N/A

Solana vs Tesla Correlation

0.53 Average Correlation

Solana and Tesla were moderately correlated in 2022. With a correlation of 0.53, these assets showed moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.40
Average (full period)	0.53
Minimum	0.17
Maximum	0.79

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2022:

SOL $580.171 -94.2%

TSLA $3,080.065 -69.2%

Difference: $2,499.894 (TSLA ahead)

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Solana and Tesla: Risk Analysis

Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -94.3% from 2022-01-03 to 2022-12-29. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Tesla experienced its maximum drawdown of -72.7% from 2022-01-03 to 2022-12-27. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of SOL and TSLA

SOL Sharpe Ratio

↓ -1.85

TSLA Sharpe Ratio

↓ -1.55

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (TSLA -1.55 vs SOL -1.85), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; TSLA was less negative.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of SOL and TSLA

SOL Sortino Ratio

↓ -2.35

TSLA Sortino Ratio

↓ -2.00

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). TSLA had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: SOL 92.7% vs TSLA 50.8%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (2022): Solana vs. Tesla

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (2022)	SOL	TSLA
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.72%	-7.44%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-16.29% (worst 19 days)	-9.60% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-1.79	-0.27
Excess kurtosis	14.13	0.19
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 5	8 / 3
Worst day	-42.28% (2022-11-09)	-12.18% (2022-04-26)
Best day	+26.83% (2022-11-10)	+10.68% (2022-01-31)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 2022

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When TSLA has a big down day, SOL also does

12.5%

1 / 8 days

When SOL has a big down day, TSLA also does

16.7%

1 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both SOL and TSLA had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	SOL	TSLA
2022-05-06 → 2022-05-09	-22.62%	-9.07%

Days when SOL had a big down day

Date (interval)	SOL	TSLA
2022-01-21 → 2022-01-24	-18.14%	-1.47%
2022-05-06 → 2022-05-09	-22.62%	-9.07%
2022-05-11	-24.80%	-8.25%
2022-06-10 → 2022-06-13	-23.99%	-7.10%
2022-11-08	-18.41%	-2.93%
2022-11-09	-42.28%	-7.17%

Days when TSLA had a big down day

Date (interval)	SOL	TSLA
2022-01-27	-2.82%	-11.55%
2022-04-26	-5.40%	-12.18%
2022-05-06 → 2022-05-09	-22.62%	-9.07%
2022-06-03	-6.44%	-9.22%
2022-06-16	-13.04%	-8.54%
2022-09-30 → 2022-10-03	-0.74%	-8.61%
2022-12-22	-2.76%	-8.88%
2022-12-23 → 2022-12-27	-5.95%	-11.41%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Solana vs. Tesla (2022)

Metric	SOL	TSLA
Total Return	-94.2%	-69.2%
Annualized Volatility	117.6%	65.3%
Sharpe Ratio	-1.85	-1.55
Sortino Ratio	-2.35	-2.00
Calmar Ratio	N/A	N/A
Sterling Ratio	N/A	N/A
Treynor Ratio	N/A	N/A
Ulcer Index	N/A	N/A
Max Drawdown	-94.3%	-72.7%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	N/A	N/A
5% VaR (daily log return)	-10.72%	-7.44%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-16.29%	-9.60%
Skew	-1.79	-0.27
Excess kurtosis	14.13	0.19
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 5	8 / 3

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2022-01-01 → 2022-12-31 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): N/A
Annualization (days/year): SOL: 365 days/year; TSLA: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

SOL: 4.50%.

TSLA: 4.50%.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

SOL: ≈ -69.1%/yr

TSLA: ≈ -21.3%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Solana vs Tesla: Frequently Asked Questions

Which had higher volatility: SOL or TSLA?

SOL showed higher volatility at 117.6% annualized, compared to 65.3% for TSLA During 2022. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.

Did SOL provide diversification when held with TSLA?

SOL and TSLA were moderately correlated in 2022, with an average correlation of 0.53. This offered some diversification benefit, though they still tended to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for SOL vs TSLA?

During 2022, SOL's 5% VaR was -10.72% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -16.29% (worst 19 days). TSLA's were -7.44% and -9.60% (worst 13 days).

Do SOL and TSLA crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=250), when TSLA has a 2σ down day, SOL also does 12.5% (1/8 days). In the other direction, when SOL has one, TSLA also does 16.7% (1/6 days).

Which had better risk-adjusted returns: SOL or TSLA?

Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios During 2022 (TSLA -1.55 vs SOL -1.85), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; TSLA was less negative.

Could SOL and TSLA have been combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their moderate correlation offered some diversification benefits. SOL's higher volatility (117.6%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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