Solana vs S&P 500 (SOL/SPY): 2026 Risk Statistics

Q: Which is a better investment: SOL or SPY?

Over the past year, SPY looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (SPY +19.9% vs SOL -36.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (SPY 0.82 vs SOL -0.14). On risk, SPY was less volatile (SPY 19.4% vs SOL 84.7%), SPY had a smaller max drawdown (SPY -16.2% vs SOL -68.6%), and SPY had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SPY -2.82% vs SOL -9.91%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Solana has emerged as a major smart contract player in the digital asset industry since its inception in 2020 and having been through a rough crypto cycle. Solana is one of the leading assets behind Bitcoin and Ethereum for the traditional finance industry, with products like ETFs and treasury companies (DATs) for Solana.

Equity investors can now invest in digital assets like Solana and get benefits of uncorrelated risk/return profile and get better diversification of their portfolio.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: SOL or SPY?

Over the past year, SPY outperformed (-36.3% vs +19.9%) with a Sharpe ratio of 0.82.

Total Return

SOL -36.3%

SPY WIN +19.9%

Sharpe Ratio

SOL -0.14

SPY WIN 0.82

Annualized Volatility

SOL 84.7%

SPY WIN 19.4%

Max Drawdown

SOL -68.6%

SPY WIN -16.2%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

SOL Total Return

↓ -36.3%

SPY Total Return

↑ +19.9%

Relative Performance of SOL vs SPY (Normalized to 100)

SOL SPY

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: SOL delivered a -36.3% total return, while SPY returned +19.9% over the same period. SPY outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while SPY was positive (0.82), indicating SPY had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 84.7% annualized volatility, versus 19.4% for SPY.
Maximum Drawdown: SPY's maximum drawdown was -16.2%, while SOL experienced a deeper drawdown of -68.6%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), SOL's VaR was -6.57% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.91%; SPY's were -1.67% and -2.82%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: SOL -0.05 vs SPY 1.10. Excess kurtosis: SOL 3.37 vs SPY 20.99. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): SOL 8/11, SPY 6/3. Worst day: SOL -20.01% (2025-03-03) vs SPY -5.85% (2025-04-04). Best day: SOL +24.25% (2025-03-02) vs SPY +10.50% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - SOL: -0.20 vs. SPY: 1.24 , Calmar - SOL: -0.51 vs. SPY: 1.24 , Sterling - SOL: -0.98 vs. SPY: 0.98 , Treynor - SOL: -0.09 vs. SPY: 0.16 , Ulcer Index - SOL: 32.19% vs. SPY: 3.51%

Solana vs S&P 500 Correlation

0.41 Average Correlation

Solana and S&P 500 are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.41, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.08
Average (full period)	0.41
Minimum	-0.06
Maximum	0.76

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

SOL $6,369.26 -36.3%

SPY $11,986.43 +19.9%

Difference: $5,617.17 (SPY ahead)

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Solana and S&P 500: Risk Analysis

Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -68.6% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-02-11. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

S&P 500 experienced its maximum drawdown of -16.2% from 2025-02-28 to 2025-04-08. It took 38 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of SOL and SPY

SOL Sharpe Ratio

↓ -0.14

SPY Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.82

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while SPY was positive (0.82), indicating SPY had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of SOL and SPY

SOL Sortino Ratio

↓ -0.20

SPY Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.24

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SPY had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: SOL 58.2% vs SPY 12.9%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of SOL and SPY

SOL Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.51

SPY Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.24

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. SPY posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of SOL and SPY

SOL Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.98

SPY Sterling Ratio

↑ 0.98

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). SPY posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of SOL and SPY

SOL Treynor Ratio

↓ -0.09

SPY Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.16

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. SPY posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of SOL and SPY

SOL Ulcer Index

32.19%

SPY Ulcer Index

3.51%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SPY had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Solana vs. S&P 500

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	SOL	SPY
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.57%	-1.67%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.91% (worst 19 days)	-2.82% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.05	1.10
Excess kurtosis	3.37	20.99
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 11	6 / 3
Worst day	-20.01% (2025-03-03)	-5.85% (2025-04-04)
Best day	+24.25% (2025-03-02)	+10.50% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When SPY has a big down day, SOL also does

33.3%

2 / 6 days

When SOL has a big down day, SPY also does

28.6%

2 / 7 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both SOL and SPY had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	SOL	SPY
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-14.65%	-2.66%
2025-10-10	-14.00%	-2.70%

Days when SOL had a big down day

Date (interval)	SOL	SPY
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-14.65%	-2.66%
2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07	-12.97%	-0.18%
2025-10-10	-14.00%	-2.70%
2025-10-31 → 2025-11-03	-11.39%	+0.19%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-9.82%	-2.04%
2026-01-30	-11.27%	-0.30%
2026-02-04	-12.17%	-0.48%

Days when SPY had a big down day

Date (interval)	SOL	SPY
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-14.65%	-2.66%
2025-04-03	-0.76%	-4.93%
2025-04-04	+4.71%	-5.85%
2025-04-10	-5.11%	-4.38%
2025-04-17 → 2025-04-21	+1.27%	-2.38%
2025-10-10	-14.00%	-2.70%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Solana vs S&P 500 Volatility (SOL vs SPY)

SOL Volatility

84.7%

±4.43% daily

SPY Volatility

19.4%

±1.22% daily

Typical daily swing

SOL

±4.43%

SPY

±1.22%

Solana's annualized volatility of 84.7% means it typically moves ±4.43% on any given day.

S&P 500's annualized volatility of 19.4% means it typically moves ±1.22% on any given day.

SOL's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while SPY's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Solana vs S&P 500 Performance Over Time

Metric	SOL	SPY
30 Days	-31.2%	0.1%
90 Days	-37.8%	2.3%
180 Days	-57.3%	8.1%
1 Year	-34.9%	19.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Solana vs. S&P 500 (1-Year)

Metric	SOL	SPY
Total Return	-36.3%	+19.9%
Annualized Volatility	84.7%	19.4%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.14	0.82
Sortino Ratio	-0.20	1.24
Calmar Ratio	-0.51	1.24
Sterling Ratio	-0.98	0.98
Treynor Ratio	-0.09	0.16
Ulcer Index	32.19%	3.51%
Max Drawdown	-68.6%	-16.2%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.45	1.00
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.57%	-1.67%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.91%	-2.82%
Skew	-0.05	1.10
Excess kurtosis	3.37	20.99
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 11	6 / 3

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): SOL: 365 days/year; SPY: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

SOL: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.

SPY: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

SOL: ≈ -35.9%/yr

SPY: ≈ -1.9%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Solana vs S&P 500: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SOL or SPY?

SOL showed higher volatility at 84.7% annualized, compared to 19.4% for SPY Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does SOL provide diversification when held with SPY?

SOL and SPY are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.41. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for SOL vs SPY?

Over the past year, SOL's 5% VaR was -6.57% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.91% (worst 19 days). SPY's were -1.67% and -2.82% (worst 13 days).

Do SOL and SPY crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SPY has a 2σ down day, SOL also does 33.3% (2/6 days). In the other direction, when SOL has one, SPY also does 28.6% (2/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SOL or SPY?

SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.14) while SPY was positive (0.82) Over the past year, indicating SPY had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can SOL and SPY be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. SOL's higher volatility (84.7%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.