Solana vs Coinbase (SOL vs COIN) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: SOL or COIN?

Over the past year, COIN looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (COIN -5.6% vs SOL -43.4%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (COIN 0.22 vs SOL -0.47). On risk, COIN was less volatile (COIN 73.4% vs SOL 73.8%), COIN had a smaller max drawdown (COIN -66.4% vs SOL -68.6%), and SOL had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SOL -8.52% vs COIN -9.15%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: SOL or COIN?

Over the past year, COIN outperformed SOL. COIN returned -5.6% compared with SOL’s -43.4%. COIN had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.22 versus SOL’s -0.47. COIN was less volatile than SOL, and COIN had a smaller max drawdown than SOL.

Total Return

SOL -43.4%

COIN -5.6%

Sharpe Ratio

SOL -0.47

COIN 0.22

Annualized Volatility

SOL 73.8%

COIN 73.4%

Max Drawdown

SOL -68.6%

COIN -66.4%

Metric winners: Total Return: COIN; Sharpe Ratio: COIN; Annualized Volatility: COIN (less volatile); Max Drawdown: COIN (smaller drawdown).

SOL Total Return

↓ -43.4%

COIN Total Return

↓ -5.6%

Relative Performance of SOL vs COIN (Normalized to 100)

SOL COIN

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Trade SOL or COIN

Access these assets on trusted platforms.

Hyperliquid

Trade perpetual futures exposure where supportedSOLCOINTrade on Hyperliquid

Binance

Trade futures exposure on a global exchange where supportedSOLCOINTrade on Binance

Affiliate disclosure

Key Takeaways

Total Return: SOL delivered a -43.4% total return, while COIN returned -5.6% over the same period. COIN outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.47) while COIN was positive (0.22), indicating COIN had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 73.8% annualized volatility, versus 73.4% for COIN.
Maximum Drawdown: COIN's maximum drawdown was -66.4%, while SOL experienced a deeper drawdown of -68.6%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), SOL's VaR was -6.03% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.52%; COIN's were -7.11% and -9.15%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: SOL -0.05 vs COIN 0.57. Excess kurtosis: SOL 1.13 vs COIN 3.55. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): SOL 9/10, COIN 3/8. Worst day: SOL -14.00% (2025-10-10) vs COIN -16.70% (2025-08-01). Best day: SOL +12.56% (2026-02-24) vs COIN +23.97% (2025-05-13).
Risk ratios: Sortino - SOL: -0.67 vs. COIN: 0.35 , Calmar - SOL: -0.64 vs. COIN: -0.08 , Sterling - SOL: -1.21 vs. COIN: -0.33 , Treynor - SOL: -0.22 vs. COIN: 0.05 , Ulcer Index - SOL: 39.78% vs. COIN: 35.50%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

SOL $5,664.25 -43.4%

COIN $9,441.42 -5.6%

Difference: $3,777.17 (COIN ahead)

Solana vs Coinbase Performance Over Time

Metric	SOL	COIN
30 Days	-6.8%	9.3%
90 Days	-32.9%	-8.8%
180 Days	-55.9%	-44.2%
1 Year	-43.9%	-5.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Solana vs Coinbase Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.41

Current (30-day) 0.03

30-day rolling range -0.14 to +0.81

Solana and Coinbase are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.41, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.03
Average (full period)	0.41
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.14
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.81

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

SOL

-68.6%

COIN

-66.4%

Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -68.6% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-02-11. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Coinbase experienced its maximum drawdown of -66.4% from 2025-07-18 to 2026-02-12. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Solana vs Coinbase Volatility (SOL vs COIN)

SOL Volatility

73.8%

±3.86% 1-day vol

COIN Volatility

73.4%

±4.62% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

SOL

±3.86%

COIN

±4.62%

Solana's 73.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.86% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Coinbase's 73.4% annualized volatility translates to about ±4.62% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

SOL had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; COIN was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of SOL and COIN

Sharpe Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.47) while COIN was positive (0.22), indicating COIN had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of SOL and COIN

Sortino Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). COIN had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: SOL 51.9% vs COIN 46.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of SOL and COIN

Calmar Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. COIN posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of SOL and COIN

Sterling Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). COIN posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of SOL and COIN

Treynor Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. COIN posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of SOL and COIN

Ulcer Index: SOL vs. COIN

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. COIN had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Solana vs. Coinbase

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: SOL vs. COIN (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	SOL	COIN
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.03%	-7.11%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.52% (worst 19 days)	-9.15% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.05	0.57
Excess kurtosis	1.13	3.55
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 10	3 / 8
Worst day	-14.00% (2025-10-10)	-16.70% (2025-08-01)
Best day	+12.56% (2026-02-24)	+23.97% (2025-05-13)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: SOL vs. COIN (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both SOL and COIN crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both SOL and COIN had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when SOL had a big down day

Date (interval)	SOL	COIN
2025-09-25	-9.18%	-4.69%
2025-10-10	-14.00%	-7.75%
2025-10-31 → 2025-11-03	-11.39%	-3.89%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-9.82%	-5.57%
2026-01-30	-11.27%	-2.23%
2026-02-04	-12.17%	-6.14%

Days when COIN had a big down day

Date (interval)	SOL	COIN
2025-08-01	-5.44%	-16.70%
2026-02-05	+11.81%	-13.34%
2026-03-24	+1.59%	-9.76%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Solana vs. Coinbase (1-Year)

Metric	SOL	COIN
Total Return	-43.4%	-5.6%
Annualized Volatility	73.8%	73.4%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.47	0.22
Sortino Ratio	-0.67	0.35
Calmar Ratio	-0.64	-0.08
Sterling Ratio	-1.21	-0.33
Treynor Ratio	-0.22	0.05
Ulcer Index	39.78%	35.50%
Max Drawdown	-68.6%	-66.4%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.40	0.59
5% VaR (daily log return)	-6.03%	-7.11%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-8.52%	-9.15%
Skew	-0.05	0.57
Excess kurtosis	1.13	3.55
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 10	3 / 8

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): SOL: 365 days/year; COIN: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

SOL: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

COIN: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

SOL: ≈ -27.2%/yr

COIN: ≈ -26.9%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Solana vs Coinbase: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SOL or COIN?

SOL showed higher volatility at 73.8% annualized, compared to 73.4% for COIN Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does SOL provide diversification when held with COIN?

SOL and COIN are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.41. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for SOL vs COIN?

Over the past year, SOL's 5% VaR was -6.03% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.52% (worst 19 days). COIN's were -7.11% and -9.15% (worst 13 days).

Do SOL and COIN crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when COIN has a 2σ down day, SOL also does 0.0% (0/3 days). In the other direction, when SOL has one, COIN also does 0.0% (0/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SOL or COIN?

SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.47) while COIN was positive (0.22) Over the past year, indicating COIN had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can SOL and COIN be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. SOL's higher volatility (73.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: SOL or COIN?

Share This Comparison of SOL vs COIN

Relative Performance of SOL vs COIN (Normalized to 100)

Trade SOL or COIN

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Solana vs Coinbase Performance Over Time

Solana vs Coinbase Correlation

Drawdown

Solana vs Coinbase Volatility (SOL vs COIN)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of SOL and COIN

Sharpe Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Sortino Ratio of SOL and COIN

Sortino Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Calmar Ratio of SOL and COIN

Calmar Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Sterling Ratio of SOL and COIN

Sterling Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Treynor Ratio of SOL and COIN

Treynor Ratio: SOL vs. COIN

Ulcer Index of SOL and COIN

Ulcer Index: SOL vs. COIN

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Solana vs. Coinbase

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: SOL vs. COIN (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: SOL vs. COIN (2σ)

Days when both SOL and COIN had a big down day (2σ)

Days when SOL had a big down day

Days when COIN had a big down day

Full Comparison of Solana vs. Coinbase (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Solana vs Coinbase: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: SOL or COIN?

Does SOL provide diversification when held with COIN?

How bad are the worst 5% days for SOL vs COIN?

Do SOL and COIN crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: SOL or COIN?

Can SOL and COIN be combined in a portfolio?