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Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital (RIOT vs MARA): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2025)

Published:

Last updated:

Analysis period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31

Gale Finance Team
Written by Gale Finance Team
Sid Kalla
Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder
RIOT Total Return
↑ +21.1%
MARA Total Return
↓ -47.8%

Relative Performance of RIOT vs MARA (Normalized to 100)

RIOT MARA

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

4 events in this period
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Key Takeaways

  • Total Return: RIOT delivered a +21.1% total return, while MARA returned -47.8% over the same period. RIOT outperformed on total returns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): MARA had a negative Sharpe (-0.49) while RIOT was positive (0.59), indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
  • Volatility (Annualized): RIOT was more volatile, with 82.5% annualized volatility, versus 79.6% for MARA.
  • Maximum Drawdown: RIOT's maximum drawdown was -53.5%, while MARA experienced a deeper drawdown of -60.7%.
  • Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), RIOT's VaR was -8.36% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -11.07%; MARA's were -8.10% and -10.72%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
  • Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: RIOT -0.14 vs MARA 0.26. Excess kurtosis: RIOT 0.74 vs MARA 1.39. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
  • Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): RIOT 6/5, MARA 5/9. Worst day: RIOT -17.75% (2025-08-01) vs MARA -16.29% (2025-03-10). Best day: RIOT +17.97% (2025-01-03) vs MARA +18.01% (2025-03-24).
  • Risk ratios: Sortino - RIOT: 0.88 vs. MARA: -0.72 , Calmar - RIOT: 0.40 vs. MARA: -0.79 , Sterling - RIOT: 0.49 vs. MARA: -0.95 , Treynor - RIOT: 0.21 vs. MARA: -0.18 , Ulcer Index - RIOT: 28.26% vs. MARA: 29.91%
Related:Bitcoin vs Riot Platforms·Cipher Mining vs Riot Platforms·Riot Platforms vs Iris Energy
Live:RIOT vs MARA (rolling)

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on January 1, 2025:

RIOT $12,112.811 +21.1%
MARA $5,217.897 -47.8%

Difference: $6,894.914 (RIOT ahead)

Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital Correlation

Average Correlation
strongly correlated
0.74
Current (30-day) 0.80
30-day rolling range +0.43 to +0.91

Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital were strongly correlated in 2025. With a correlation of 0.74, these assets tended to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both RIOT and MARA provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric Value
Current (30-day) 0.80
Average (full period) 0.74
Minimum (30-day rolling) 0.43
Maximum (30-day rolling) 0.91

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown
RIOT
-53.5%
MARA
-60.7%

Riot Platforms experienced its maximum drawdown of -53.5% from 2025-01-24 to 2025-04-21. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Marathon Digital experienced its maximum drawdown of -60.7% from 2025-10-15 to 2025-12-31. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of RIOT and MARA

Sharpe Ratio: RIOT vs. MARA

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better
Excess return Annualized volatility 0 100% vol 82.5% · excess +49.0% vol 79.6% · excess -38.8%
excess return / total volatility
Formula Sharpe=E[R]−RfσR\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. MARA had a negative Sharpe (-0.49) while RIOT was positive (0.59), indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of RIOT and MARA

Sortino Ratio: RIOT vs. MARA

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better
Frequency (days) Daily return (%) target -19.2% +19.4% 36 0
excess return / downside volatility
Formula Sortino=E[R]−Rfσdown\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). RIOT had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: RIOT 55.6% vs MARA 54.0%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of RIOT and MARA

Calmar Ratio: RIOT vs. MARA

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better
0% RIOT +21.3% -53.5% MARA -48.0% -60.7%
CAGR / max drawdown
Formula Calmar=CAGR∣MaxDD∣\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. RIOT posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of RIOT and MARA

Sterling Ratio: RIOT vs. MARA

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better
0% -16% -32% -48% -64% 10% drawdown threshold
excess annual return / average deep drawdown
Formula Sterling=CAGR−RfD‾>10%\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). RIOT posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of RIOT and MARA

Treynor Ratio: RIOT vs. MARA

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better
Asset return Market return 0 0 β 2.38 β 2.19
excess return / market beta
Formula Treynor=E[R]−Rfβ\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. RIOT posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of RIOT and MARA

Ulcer Index: RIOT vs. MARA

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better
0% -16% -32% -48% -64%
root-mean-square drawdown
Formula UI=E[Dt2]\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. RIOT had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (2025): Riot Platforms vs. Marathon Digital

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right) so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: RIOT vs. MARA (2025)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns
RIOT VaR 5% ES 5% MARA VaR 5% ES 5% -22.7% 0% +22.7% Daily log return
VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.
Formula VaR5%=Q0.05(rt),ES5%=E[rt∣rt≤VaR5%]\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]
Metric (2025) RIOT MARA
5% VaR (daily log return) -8.36% -8.10%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -11.07% (worst 13 days) -10.72% (worst 13 days)
Skew -0.14 0.26
Excess kurtosis 0.74 1.39
2σ tail days (down / up) 6 / 5 5 / 9
Worst day -17.75% (2025-08-01) -16.29% (2025-03-10)
Best day +17.97% (2025-01-03) +18.01% (2025-03-24)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 2025

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: RIOT vs. MARA (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both RIOT and MARA crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ
-2σ MARA -2σ RIOT Joint downside zone -20.3% 0% +20.3% +22.3% 0% -22.3% MARA daily log return RIOT daily log return
Shared daily return 249
RIOT Downside threshold -10.29%
MARA Downside threshold -10.20%
Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both RIOT and MARA had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval) RIOT MARA
2025-10-16 -11.66% -11.27%
2025-11-13 -10.22% -11.31%

Days when RIOT had a big down day

Date (interval) RIOT MARA
2025-01-24 → 2025-01-27 -15.44% -8.53%
2025-02-21 -9.83% -8.09%
2025-08-01 -17.75% -3.61%
2025-10-16 -11.66% -11.27%
2025-11-13 -10.22% -11.31%
2025-12-12 → 2025-12-15 -10.39% -7.12%

Days when MARA had a big down day

Date (interval) RIOT MARA
2025-02-25 -6.71% -10.62%
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10 -9.68% -16.29%
2025-07-23 +0.49% -11.62%
2025-10-16 -11.66% -11.27%
2025-11-13 -10.22% -11.31%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Riot Platforms vs. Marathon Digital (2025)

Metric RIOT MARA
Total Return +21.1% -47.8%
Annualized Volatility 82.5% 79.6%
Sharpe Ratio 0.59 -0.49
Sortino Ratio 0.88 -0.72
Calmar Ratio 0.40 -0.79
Sterling Ratio 0.49 -0.95
Treynor Ratio 0.21 -0.18
Ulcer Index 28.26% 29.91%
Max Drawdown -53.5% -60.7%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500 N/A N/A
5% VaR (daily log return) -8.36% -8.10%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -11.07% -10.72%
Skew -0.14 0.26
Excess kurtosis 0.74 1.39
2σ tail days (down / up) 6 / 5 5 / 9
Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics
2025-01-02 → 2025-12-31 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes)
220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year)
RIOT: 252 days/year; MARA: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate
Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:
  • RIOT: 4.22% over 2025-01-02 → 2025-12-31.
  • MARA: 4.22% over 2025-01-02 → 2025-12-31.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb)
Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.
  • RIOT: ≈ -34.0%/yr
  • MARA: ≈ -31.7%/yr
Data alignment
No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions
Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return
rt=PtPt−1−1r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1
Volatility
σann=σ(rt)A\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}
Volatility drag (approx.)
drag≈12σann2\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2
Sharpe Ratio
S=A rˉ−rfσ(rt)AS = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}
Sortino Ratio
So=A rˉ−rfE[min⁡(0, rt−rf/A)2] ASo = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}
Maximum Drawdown
MDD=min⁡t(Ptmax⁡s≤tPs−1)MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)
Average Correlation
ρ=cov⁡(rA, rB)σA σB\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}
Log returns
ℓt=ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)
Notation
PtP_t
Price on day t.
rtr_t
Simple daily return.
ℓt\ell_t
Log daily return.
rˉ\bar{r}
Average daily return.
σ(rt)\sigma(r_t)
Standard deviation of daily returns.
AA
Annualization factor (days/year).
rfr_f
Annual risk-free rate.

Riot Platforms vs Marathon Digital: Frequently Asked Questions

Which had higher volatility: RIOT or MARA?

RIOT showed higher volatility at 82.5% annualized, compared to 79.6% for MARA During 2025. Higher volatility meant larger price swings in both directions.

Did RIOT provide diversification when held with MARA?

RIOT and MARA were strongly correlated in 2025, with an average correlation of 0.74. This strong correlation limited diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for RIOT vs MARA?

During 2025, RIOT's 5% VaR was -8.36% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -11.07% (worst 13 days). MARA's were -8.10% and -10.72% (worst 13 days).

Do RIOT and MARA crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when MARA has a 2σ down day, RIOT also does 40.0% (2/5 days). In the other direction, when RIOT has one, MARA also does 33.3% (2/6 days).

Which had better risk-adjusted returns: RIOT or MARA?

MARA had a negative Sharpe (-0.49) while RIOT was positive (0.59) During 2025, indicating RIOT had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Could RIOT and MARA have been combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing mattered. Their strong correlation provided limited risk reduction since they tended to move together. RIOT's higher volatility (82.5%) meant even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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