Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) (OPEN vs VNQ) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: OPEN or VNQ?

Over the past year, VNQ looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (VNQ +10.0% vs OPEN -27.2%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (VNQ 0.49 vs OPEN 0.23). On risk, VNQ was less volatile (VNQ 13.7% vs OPEN 122.3%), VNQ had a smaller max drawdown (VNQ -8.3% vs OPEN -67.0%), and VNQ had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of VNQ -1.93% vs OPEN -12.25%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: OPEN or VNQ?

Over the past year, VNQ outperformed OPEN. VNQ returned +10.0% compared with OPEN’s -27.2%. VNQ had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.49 versus OPEN’s 0.23. VNQ was less volatile than OPEN, and VNQ had a smaller max drawdown than OPEN.

Total Return

OPEN -27.2%

VNQ +10.0%

Sharpe Ratio

OPEN 0.23

VNQ 0.49

Annualized Volatility

OPEN 122.3%

VNQ 13.7%

Max Drawdown

OPEN -67.0%

VNQ -8.3%

Metric winners: Total Return: VNQ; Sharpe Ratio: VNQ; Annualized Volatility: VNQ (less volatile); Max Drawdown: VNQ (smaller drawdown).

OPEN Total Return

↓ -27.2%

VNQ Total Return

↑ +10.0%

Relative Performance of OPEN vs VNQ (Normalized to 100)

OPEN VNQ

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: OPEN delivered a -27.2% total return, while VNQ returned +10.0% over the same period. VNQ outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): VNQ had a higher Sharpe (0.49 vs 0.23), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): OPEN was more volatile, with 122.3% annualized volatility, versus 13.7% for VNQ.
Maximum Drawdown: VNQ's maximum drawdown was -8.3%, while OPEN experienced a deeper drawdown of -67.0%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), OPEN's VaR was -9.62% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -12.25%; VNQ's were -1.37% and -1.93%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: OPEN 2.53 vs VNQ -0.24. Excess kurtosis: OPEN 20.00 vs VNQ 0.73. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): OPEN 3/4, VNQ 8/6. Worst day: OPEN -15.39% (2025-09-23) vs VNQ -3.10% (2026-03-20). Best day: OPEN +79.52% (2025-09-11) vs VNQ +2.30% (2026-06-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - OPEN: 0.44 vs. VNQ: 0.70 , Calmar - OPEN: -0.41 vs. VNQ: 1.21 , Sterling - OPEN: -0.95 vs. VNQ: No 10% drawdown , Treynor - OPEN: 0.09 vs. VNQ: 0.22 , Ulcer Index - OPEN: 45.15% vs. VNQ: 2.66%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on August 22, 2025:

OPEN $7,280.77 -27.2%

VNQ $11,003.63 +10.0%

Difference: $3,722.86 (VNQ ahead)

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) Performance Over Time

Metric	OPEN	VNQ
30 Days	-19.4%	-0.5%
90 Days	-22.1%	1.8%
180 Days	-29.4%	4.9%
1 Year	-27.2%	10%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) Correlation

Average Correlation

weakly correlated

0.17

Current (30-day) 0.13

30-day rolling range -0.15 to +0.46

Opendoor and US Real Estate (REITs) are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.17, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining OPEN and VNQ could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.13
Average (full period)	0.17
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.15
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.46

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

OPEN

-67.0%

VNQ

-8.3%

Opendoor experienced its maximum drawdown of -67% from 2025-09-11 to 2026-08-18. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

US Real Estate (REITs) experienced its maximum drawdown of -8.3% from 2026-03-02 to 2026-03-27. It took 20 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) Volatility (OPEN vs VNQ)

OPEN Volatility

122.3%

±7.7% 1-day vol

VNQ Volatility

13.7%

±0.86% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

OPEN

±7.7%

VNQ

±0.86%

Opendoor's 122.3% annualized volatility translates to about ±7.7% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

US Real Estate (REITs)'s 13.7% annualized volatility translates to about ±0.86% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

OPEN had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; VNQ was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Sharpe Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. VNQ had a higher Sharpe (0.49 vs 0.23), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Sortino Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). VNQ had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: OPEN 63.6% vs VNQ 9.6%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Calmar Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. VNQ posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Sterling Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). VNQ had no 10% drawdown in this lookback, so Sterling is not calculated.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Treynor Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. VNQ posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of OPEN and VNQ

Ulcer Index: OPEN vs. VNQ

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. VNQ had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Opendoor vs. US Real Estate (REITs)

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: OPEN vs. VNQ (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	OPEN	VNQ
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.62%	-1.37%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.25% (worst 13 days)	-1.93% (worst 13 days)
Skew	2.53	-0.24
Excess kurtosis	20.00	0.73
2σ tail days (down / up)	3 / 4	8 / 6
Worst day	-15.39% (2025-09-23)	-3.10% (2026-03-20)
Best day	+79.52% (2025-09-11)	+2.30% (2026-06-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: OPEN vs. VNQ (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both OPEN and VNQ crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both OPEN and VNQ had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when OPEN had a big down day

Date (interval)	OPEN	VNQ
2025-08-27	-14.47%	+0.62%
2025-09-12	-13.78%	-0.46%
2025-09-23	-15.39%	+0.55%

Days when VNQ had a big down day

Date (interval)	OPEN	VNQ
2025-10-28	-2.33%	-1.96%
2025-10-29	-4.02%	-2.58%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-4.20%	-1.86%
2026-03-20	-4.47%	-3.10%
2026-04-21	+1.87%	-1.77%
2026-05-29 → 2026-06-01	+5.36%	-1.68%
2026-06-17	-6.32%	-2.50%
2026-06-30	+0.43%	-1.75%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Opendoor vs. US Real Estate (REITs) (1-Year)

Metric	OPEN	VNQ
Total Return	-27.2%	+10.0%
Annualized Volatility	122.3%	13.7%
Sharpe Ratio	0.23	0.49
Sortino Ratio	0.44	0.70
Calmar Ratio	-0.41	1.21
Sterling Ratio	-0.95	No 10% drawdown
Treynor Ratio	0.09	0.22
Ulcer Index	45.15%	2.66%
Max Drawdown	-67.0%	-8.3%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.44	0.37
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.62%	-1.37%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.25%	-1.93%
Skew	2.53	-0.24
Excess kurtosis	20.00	0.73
2σ tail days (down / up)	3 / 4	8 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 221 rolling 30-day values (from 250 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): OPEN: 252 days/year; VNQ: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

OPEN: 3.81% over 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21.

VNQ: 3.81% over 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

OPEN: ≈ -74.8%/yr

VNQ: ≈ -0.9%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs): Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: OPEN or VNQ?

OPEN showed higher volatility at 122.3% annualized, compared to 13.7% for VNQ Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does OPEN provide diversification when held with VNQ?

OPEN and VNQ are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.17. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for OPEN vs VNQ?

Over the past year, OPEN's 5% VaR was -9.62% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -12.25% (worst 13 days). VNQ's were -1.37% and -1.93% (worst 13 days).

Do OPEN and VNQ crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=250), when VNQ has a 2σ down day, OPEN also does 0.0% (0/8 days). In the other direction, when OPEN has one, VNQ also does 0.0% (0/3 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: OPEN or VNQ?

VNQ showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.49 versus OPEN's 0.23 Over the past year.

Can OPEN and VNQ be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. OPEN's higher volatility (122.3%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: OPEN or VNQ?

Share This Comparison of OPEN vs VNQ

Relative Performance of OPEN vs VNQ (Normalized to 100)

Trade OPEN or VNQ

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) Performance Over Time

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) Correlation

Drawdown

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs) Volatility (OPEN vs VNQ)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Sharpe Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Sortino Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Sortino Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Calmar Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Calmar Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Sterling Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Sterling Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Treynor Ratio of OPEN and VNQ

Treynor Ratio: OPEN vs. VNQ

Ulcer Index of OPEN and VNQ

Ulcer Index: OPEN vs. VNQ

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Opendoor vs. US Real Estate (REITs)

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: OPEN vs. VNQ (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: OPEN vs. VNQ (2σ)

Days when both OPEN and VNQ had a big down day (2σ)

Days when OPEN had a big down day

Days when VNQ had a big down day

Full Comparison of Opendoor vs. US Real Estate (REITs) (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Opendoor vs US Real Estate (REITs): Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: OPEN or VNQ?

Does OPEN provide diversification when held with VNQ?

How bad are the worst 5% days for OPEN vs VNQ?

Do OPEN and VNQ crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: OPEN or VNQ?

Can OPEN and VNQ be combined in a portfolio?