ONDS vs AVAV: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: ONDS or AVAV?

Over the past year, ONDS looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (ONDS +933.6% vs AVAV +74.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (ONDS 2.41 vs AVAV 1.11). On risk, AVAV was less volatile (AVAV 67.3% vs ONDS 134.4%), AVAV had a smaller max drawdown (AVAV -44.1% vs ONDS -53.4%), and AVAV had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of AVAV -9.27% vs ONDS -15.13%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ONDS or AVAV?

Over the past year, ONDS outperformed (+933.6% vs +74.3%) with a Sharpe ratio of 2.41.

Total Return

ONDS WIN +933.6%

AVAV +74.3%

Sharpe Ratio

ONDS WIN 2.41

AVAV 1.11

Annualized Volatility

ONDS 134.4%

AVAV WIN 67.3%

Max Drawdown

ONDS -53.4%

AVAV WIN -44.1%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-20

ONDS Total Return

↑ +933.6%

AVAV Total Return

↑ +74.3%

Relative Performance of ONDS vs AVAV (Normalized to 100)

ONDS AVAV

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: ONDS delivered a +933.6% total return, while AVAV returned +74.3% over the same period. ONDS outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): ONDS had a higher Sharpe (2.41 vs 1.11), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): ONDS was more volatile, with 134.4% annualized volatility, versus 67.3% for AVAV.
Maximum Drawdown: AVAV's maximum drawdown was -44.1%, while ONDS experienced a deeper drawdown of -53.4%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ONDS's VaR was -12.72% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -15.13%; AVAV's were -6.24% and -9.27%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ONDS 0.22 vs AVAV 0.26. Excess kurtosis: ONDS 0.15 vs AVAV 3.83. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ONDS 4/7, AVAV 6/6. Worst day: ONDS -18.97% (2025-04-03) vs AVAV -15.77% (2026-01-20). Best day: ONDS +29.47% (2025-11-24) vs AVAV +21.55% (2025-06-25).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ONDS: 4.19 vs. AVAV: 1.78 , Calmar - ONDS: 18.43 vs. AVAV: 1.73 , Sterling - ONDS: 39.30 vs. AVAV: 2.37 , Treynor - ONDS: 1.52 vs. AVAV: 0.60 , Ulcer Index - ONDS: 21.64% vs. AVAV: 19.37%

Ondas Holdings vs AeroVironment Correlation

0.28 Average Correlation

Ondas Holdings and AeroVironment are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.28, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining ONDS and AVAV could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.56
Average (full period)	0.28
Minimum	-0.06
Maximum	0.70

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

ONDS $103,359.44 +933.6%

AVAV $17,425.92 +74.3%

Difference: $85,933.52 (ONDS ahead)

Ondas Holdings and AeroVironment: Risk Analysis

Ondas Holdings experienced its maximum drawdown of -53.4% from 2025-10-08 to 2025-11-06. It took 60 days to recover.

AeroVironment experienced its maximum drawdown of -44.1% from 2025-10-13 to 2025-12-17. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of ONDS and AVAV

ONDS Sharpe Ratio

↑ 2.41

AVAV Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.11

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. ONDS had a higher Sharpe (2.41 vs 1.11), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ONDS and AVAV

ONDS Sortino Ratio

↑ 4.19

AVAV Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.78

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). ONDS had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ONDS 77.2% vs AVAV 42.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ONDS and AVAV

ONDS Calmar Ratio

↑ 18.43

AVAV Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.73

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. ONDS posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ONDS and AVAV

ONDS Sterling Ratio

↑ 39.30

AVAV Sterling Ratio

↑ 2.37

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). ONDS posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ONDS and AVAV

ONDS Treynor Ratio

↑ 1.52

AVAV Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.60

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. ONDS posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ONDS and AVAV

ONDS Ulcer Index

21.64%

AVAV Ulcer Index

19.37%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. AVAV had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Ondas Holdings vs. AeroVironment

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	ONDS	AVAV
5% VaR (daily log return)	-12.72%	-6.24%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-15.13% (worst 13 days)	-9.27% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.22	0.26
Excess kurtosis	0.15	3.83
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 7	6 / 6
Worst day	-18.97% (2025-04-03)	-15.77% (2026-01-20)
Best day	+29.47% (2025-11-24)	+21.55% (2025-06-25)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=246). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When AVAV has a big down day, ONDS also does

16.7%

1 / 6 days

When ONDS has a big down day, AVAV also does

25.0%

1 / 4 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ONDS and AVAV had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ONDS	AVAV
2026-02-04	-14.94%	-9.85%

Days when ONDS had a big down day

Date (interval)	ONDS	AVAV
2025-04-03	-18.97%	-7.29%
2025-08-13	-17.95%	+1.72%
2025-11-20	-16.40%	-2.30%
2026-02-04	-14.94%	-9.85%

Days when AVAV had a big down day

Date (interval)	ONDS	AVAV
2025-07-01	+2.08%	-11.42%
2025-11-13	+19.06%	-8.61%
2025-12-10	-9.80%	-12.85%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	+7.98%	-15.77%
2026-02-04	-14.94%	-9.85%
2026-02-05	-12.40%	-7.94%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Ondas Holdings vs AeroVironment Volatility (ONDS vs AVAV)

ONDS Volatility

134.4%

±8.46% daily

AVAV Volatility

67.3%

±4.24% daily

Typical daily swing

ONDS

±8.46%

AVAV

±4.24%

Ondas Holdings's annualized volatility of 134.4% means it typically moves ±8.46% on any given day.

AeroVironment's annualized volatility of 67.3% means it typically moves ±4.24% on any given day.

ONDS's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while AVAV's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Ondas Holdings vs AeroVironment Performance Over Time

Metric	ONDS	AVAV
30 Days	-20.1%	-17.2%
90 Days	48.9%	-2.9%
180 Days	123.4%	10.3%
1 Year	N/A	N/A

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Ondas Holdings vs. AeroVironment (1-Year)

Metric	ONDS	AVAV
Total Return	+933.6%	+74.3%
Annualized Volatility	134.4%	67.3%
Sharpe Ratio	2.41	1.11
Sortino Ratio	4.19	1.78
Calmar Ratio	18.43	1.73
Sterling Ratio	39.30	2.37
Treynor Ratio	1.52	0.60
Ulcer Index	21.64%	19.37%
Max Drawdown	-53.4%	-44.1%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.32	0.31
5% VaR (daily log return)	-12.72%	-6.24%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-15.13%	-9.27%
Skew	0.22	0.26
Excess kurtosis	0.15	3.83
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 7	6 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-20 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 217 rolling 30-day values (from 246 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ONDS: 252 days/year; AVAV: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ONDS: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-20.

AVAV: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-20.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ONDS: ≈ -90.3%/yr

AVAV: ≈ -22.6%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Ondas Holdings vs AeroVironment: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ONDS or AVAV?

ONDS showed higher volatility at 134.4% annualized, compared to 67.3% for AVAV Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ONDS provide diversification when held with AVAV?

ONDS and AVAV are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.28. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ONDS vs AVAV?

Over the past year, ONDS's 5% VaR was -12.72% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -15.13% (worst 13 days). AVAV's were -6.24% and -9.27% (worst 13 days).

Do ONDS and AVAV crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=246), when AVAV has a 2σ down day, ONDS also does 16.7% (1/6 days). In the other direction, when ONDS has one, AVAV also does 25.0% (1/4 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ONDS or AVAV?

ONDS showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 2.41 versus AVAV's 1.11 Over the past year.

Can ONDS and AVAV be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. ONDS's higher volatility (134.4%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.