OKLO vs SMR: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: OKLO or SMR?

Over the past year, OKLO looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (OKLO +104.8% vs SMR -21.1%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (OKLO 1.15 vs SMR 0.27). On risk, SMR was less volatile (SMR 109.3% vs OKLO 111.8%), OKLO had a smaller max drawdown (OKLO -64.3% vs SMR -76.4%), and SMR had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SMR -12.53% vs OKLO -12.84%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: OKLO or SMR?

Over the past year, OKLO outperformed (+104.8% vs -21.1%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.15.

Total Return

OKLO WIN +104.8%

SMR -21.1%

Sharpe Ratio

OKLO WIN 1.15

SMR 0.27

Annualized Volatility

OKLO 111.8%

SMR WIN 109.3%

Max Drawdown

OKLO WIN -64.3%

SMR -76.4%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

OKLO Total Return

↑ +104.8%

SMR Total Return

↓ -21.1%

Relative Performance of OKLO vs SMR (Normalized to 100)

OKLO SMR

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: OKLO delivered a +104.8% total return, while SMR returned -21.1% over the same period. OKLO outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): OKLO had a higher Sharpe (1.15 vs 0.27), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): OKLO was more volatile, with 111.8% annualized volatility, versus 109.3% for SMR.
Maximum Drawdown: OKLO's maximum drawdown was -64.3%, while SMR experienced a deeper drawdown of -76.4%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), OKLO's VaR was -9.85% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -12.84%; SMR's were -10.70% and -12.53%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: OKLO 0.48 vs SMR 0.45. Excess kurtosis: OKLO 0.95 vs SMR 0.37. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): OKLO 4/9, SMR 4/13. Worst day: OKLO -15.13% (2025-12-12) vs SMR -14.38% (2025-11-06). Best day: OKLO +29.48% (2025-06-11) vs SMR +22.69% (2025-09-19).
Risk ratios: Sortino - OKLO: 1.93 vs. SMR: 0.43 , Calmar - OKLO: 1.64 vs. SMR: -0.28 , Sterling - OKLO: 3.55 vs. SMR: -1.00 , Treynor - OKLO: 0.54 vs. SMR: 0.13 , Ulcer Index - OKLO: 31.73% vs. SMR: 39.10%

Oklo vs NuScale Power Correlation

0.81 Average Correlation

Oklo and NuScale Power are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.81, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both OKLO and SMR provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.89
Average (full period)	0.81
Minimum	0.56
Maximum	0.94

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

OKLO $20,475.46 +104.8%

SMR $7,887.49 -21.1%

Difference: $12,587.97 (OKLO ahead)

Oklo and NuScale Power: Risk Analysis

Oklo experienced its maximum drawdown of -64.3% from 2025-10-14 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

NuScale Power experienced its maximum drawdown of -76.4% from 2025-10-15 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of OKLO and SMR

OKLO Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.15

SMR Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.27

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. OKLO had a higher Sharpe (1.15 vs 0.27), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of OKLO and SMR

OKLO Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.93

SMR Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.43

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). OKLO had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: OKLO 66.8% vs SMR 69.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of OKLO and SMR

OKLO Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.64

SMR Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.28

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. OKLO posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of OKLO and SMR

OKLO Sterling Ratio

↑ 3.55

SMR Sterling Ratio

↓ -1.00

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). OKLO posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of OKLO and SMR

OKLO Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.54

SMR Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.13

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. OKLO posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of OKLO and SMR

OKLO Ulcer Index

31.73%

SMR Ulcer Index

39.10%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. OKLO had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Oklo vs. NuScale Power

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	OKLO	SMR
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.85%	-10.70%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.84% (worst 13 days)	-12.53% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.48	0.45
Excess kurtosis	0.95	0.37
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 9	4 / 13
Worst day	-15.13% (2025-12-12)	-14.38% (2025-11-06)
Best day	+29.48% (2025-06-11)	+22.69% (2025-09-19)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When SMR has a big down day, OKLO also does

25.0%

1 / 4 days

When OKLO has a big down day, SMR also does

25.0%

1 / 4 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both OKLO and SMR had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	OKLO	SMR
2025-12-12	-15.13%	-13.57%

Days when OKLO had a big down day

Date (interval)	OKLO	SMR
2025-03-06	-14.26%	-7.91%
2025-10-22	-13.86%	-9.51%
2025-11-20	-14.45%	-11.50%
2025-12-12	-15.13%	-13.57%

Days when SMR had a big down day

Date (interval)	OKLO	SMR
2025-10-21	-12.33%	-13.21%
2025-11-04	-11.40%	-12.74%
2025-11-06	-11.94%	-14.38%
2025-12-12	-15.13%	-13.57%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Oklo vs NuScale Power Volatility (OKLO vs SMR)

OKLO Volatility

111.8%

±7.05% daily

SMR Volatility

109.3%

±6.89% daily

Typical daily swing

OKLO

±7.05%

SMR

±6.89%

Oklo's annualized volatility of 111.8% means it typically moves ±7.05% on any given day.

NuScale Power's annualized volatility of 109.3% means it typically moves ±6.89% on any given day.

OKLO's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while SMR's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Oklo vs NuScale Power Performance Over Time

Metric	OKLO	SMR
30 Days	-19.4%	-28.4%
90 Days	-25.2%	-30.8%
180 Days	-9.9%	-62%
1 Year	104.8%	-21.1%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Oklo vs. NuScale Power (1-Year)

Metric	OKLO	SMR
Total Return	+104.8%	-21.1%
Annualized Volatility	111.8%	109.3%
Sharpe Ratio	1.15	0.27
Sortino Ratio	1.93	0.43
Calmar Ratio	1.64	-0.28
Sterling Ratio	3.55	-1.00
Treynor Ratio	0.54	0.13
Ulcer Index	31.73%	39.10%
Max Drawdown	-64.3%	-76.4%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.35	0.38
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.85%	-10.70%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.84%	-12.53%
Skew	0.48	0.45
Excess kurtosis	0.95	0.37
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 9	4 / 13

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): OKLO: 252 days/year; SMR: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

OKLO: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.

SMR: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

OKLO: ≈ -62.5%/yr

SMR: ≈ -59.7%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Oklo vs NuScale Power: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: OKLO or SMR?

OKLO showed higher volatility at 111.8% annualized, compared to 109.3% for SMR Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does OKLO provide diversification when held with SMR?

OKLO and SMR are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.81. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for OKLO vs SMR?

Over the past year, OKLO's 5% VaR was -9.85% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -12.84% (worst 13 days). SMR's were -10.70% and -12.53% (worst 13 days).

Do OKLO and SMR crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SMR has a 2σ down day, OKLO also does 25.0% (1/4 days). In the other direction, when OKLO has one, SMR also does 25.0% (1/4 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: OKLO or SMR?

OKLO showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.15 versus SMR's 0.27 Over the past year.

Can OKLO and SMR be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. OKLO's higher volatility (111.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.