Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly (HIMS vs LLY) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: HIMS or LLY?

Over the past year, it depends: LLY led on total return (LLY +4.5% vs HIMS +0.2%), but HIMS had the higher Sharpe ratio (HIMS 0.46 vs LLY 0.20). On risk, LLY was less volatile (LLY 38.9% vs HIMS 101.9%), LLY had a smaller max drawdown (LLY -30.3% vs HIMS -78.1%), and LLY had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of LLY -6.15% vs HIMS -13.13%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: HIMS or LLY?

Over the past year, LLY outperformed HIMS. LLY returned +4.5% compared with HIMS’s +0.2%. HIMS had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.46 versus LLY’s 0.20. LLY was less volatile than HIMS, and LLY had a smaller max drawdown than HIMS.

Total Return

HIMS +0.2%

LLY +4.5%

Sharpe Ratio

HIMS 0.46

LLY 0.20

Annualized Volatility

HIMS 101.9%

LLY 38.9%

Max Drawdown

HIMS -78.1%

LLY -30.3%

Metric winners: Total Return: LLY; Sharpe Ratio: HIMS; Annualized Volatility: LLY (less volatile); Max Drawdown: LLY (smaller drawdown).

HIMS Total Return

↑ +0.2%

LLY Total Return

↑ +4.5%

Relative Performance of HIMS vs LLY (Normalized to 100)

HIMS LLY

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: HIMS delivered a +0.2% total return, while LLY returned +4.5% over the same period. LLY outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): HIMS had a higher Sharpe (0.46 vs 0.20), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): HIMS was more volatile, with 101.9% annualized volatility, versus 38.9% for LLY.
Maximum Drawdown: LLY's maximum drawdown was -30.3%, while HIMS experienced a deeper drawdown of -78.1%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), HIMS's VaR was -7.67% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -13.13%; LLY's were -3.51% and -6.15%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: HIMS -0.27 vs LLY -1.19. Excess kurtosis: HIMS 10.64 vs LLY 8.51. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): HIMS 4/7, LLY 6/3. Worst day: HIMS -34.63% (2025-06-23) vs LLY -14.14% (2025-08-07). Best day: HIMS +40.79% (2026-03-09) vs LLY +10.33% (2026-02-04).
Risk ratios: Sortino - HIMS: 0.74 vs. LLY: 0.28 , Calmar - HIMS: 0.00 vs. LLY: 0.15 , Sterling - HIMS: -0.07 vs. LLY: 0.01 , Treynor - HIMS: 0.19 vs. LLY: 0.12 , Ulcer Index - HIMS: 42.89% vs. LLY: 12.94%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

HIMS $10,021.36 +0.2%

LLY $10,449.69 +4.5%

Difference: $428.33 (LLY ahead)

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly Performance Over Time

Metric	HIMS	LLY
30 Days	31.9%	1.6%
90 Days	-5%	-13.6%
180 Days	-42.3%	11.5%
1 Year	0.2%	4.5%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly Correlation

Average Correlation

weakly correlated

0.03

Current (30-day) 0.16

30-day rolling range -0.26 to +0.31

Hims & Hers Health and Eli Lilly are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.03, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining HIMS and LLY could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.16
Average (full period)	0.03
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.26
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.31

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

HIMS

-78.1%

LLY

-30.3%

Hims & Hers Health experienced its maximum drawdown of -78.1% from 2025-07-31 to 2026-02-27. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Eli Lilly experienced its maximum drawdown of -30.3% from 2025-04-30 to 2025-08-08. It took 87 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly Volatility (HIMS vs LLY)

HIMS Volatility

101.9%

±6.42% 1-day vol

LLY Volatility

38.9%

±2.45% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

HIMS

±6.42%

LLY

±2.45%

Hims & Hers Health's 101.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±6.42% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Eli Lilly's 38.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.45% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

HIMS had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; LLY was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Sharpe Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. HIMS had a higher Sharpe (0.46 vs 0.20), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Sortino Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). HIMS had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: HIMS 63.3% vs LLY 28.7%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Calmar Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. LLY posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Sterling Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). LLY posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Treynor Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. HIMS posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of HIMS and LLY

Ulcer Index: HIMS vs. LLY

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. LLY had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Hims & Hers Health vs. Eli Lilly

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: HIMS vs. LLY (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	HIMS	LLY
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.67%	-3.51%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.13% (worst 13 days)	-6.15% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.27	-1.19
Excess kurtosis	10.64	8.51
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 7	6 / 3
Worst day	-34.63% (2025-06-23)	-14.14% (2025-08-07)
Best day	+40.79% (2026-03-09)	+10.33% (2026-02-04)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: HIMS vs. LLY (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both HIMS and LLY crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both HIMS and LLY had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when HIMS had a big down day

Date (interval)	HIMS	LLY
2025-06-20 → 2025-06-23	-34.63%	+1.04%
2025-08-05	-12.36%	-0.40%
2025-10-17	-15.84%	-2.02%
2026-02-06 → 2026-02-09	-16.03%	-1.28%

Days when LLY had a big down day

Date (interval)	HIMS	LLY
2025-05-01	+9.24%	-11.66%
2025-05-06	+18.12%	-5.64%
2025-07-29	+2.71%	-5.59%
2025-08-07	-0.16%	-14.14%
2026-02-05	-3.77%	-7.79%
2026-03-17	+0.40%	-5.94%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Hims & Hers Health vs. Eli Lilly (1-Year)

Metric	HIMS	LLY
Total Return	+0.2%	+4.5%
Annualized Volatility	101.9%	38.9%
Sharpe Ratio	0.46	0.20
Sortino Ratio	0.74	0.28
Calmar Ratio	0.00	0.15
Sterling Ratio	-0.07	0.01
Treynor Ratio	0.19	0.12
Ulcer Index	42.89%	12.94%
Max Drawdown	-78.1%	-30.3%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.33	0.16
5% VaR (daily log return)	-7.67%	-3.51%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-13.13%	-6.15%
Skew	-0.27	-1.19
Excess kurtosis	10.64	8.51
2σ tail days (down / up)	4 / 7	6 / 3

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): HIMS: 252 days/year; LLY: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

HIMS: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.

LLY: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

HIMS: ≈ -51.9%/yr

LLY: ≈ -7.6%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: HIMS or LLY?

HIMS showed higher volatility at 101.9% annualized, compared to 38.9% for LLY Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does HIMS provide diversification when held with LLY?

HIMS and LLY are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.03. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for HIMS vs LLY?

Over the past year, HIMS's 5% VaR was -7.67% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -13.13% (worst 13 days). LLY's were -3.51% and -6.15% (worst 13 days).

Do HIMS and LLY crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when LLY has a 2σ down day, HIMS also does 0.0% (0/6 days). In the other direction, when HIMS has one, LLY also does 0.0% (0/4 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: HIMS or LLY?

HIMS showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.46 versus LLY's 0.20 Over the past year.

Can HIMS and LLY be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. HIMS's higher volatility (101.9%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: HIMS or LLY?

Share This Comparison of HIMS vs LLY

Relative Performance of HIMS vs LLY (Normalized to 100)

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Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly Performance Over Time

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly Correlation

Drawdown

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly Volatility (HIMS vs LLY)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Sharpe Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Sortino Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Sortino Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Calmar Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Calmar Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Sterling Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Sterling Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Treynor Ratio of HIMS and LLY

Treynor Ratio: HIMS vs. LLY

Ulcer Index of HIMS and LLY

Ulcer Index: HIMS vs. LLY

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Hims & Hers Health vs. Eli Lilly

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: HIMS vs. LLY (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: HIMS vs. LLY (2σ)

Days when both HIMS and LLY had a big down day (2σ)

Days when HIMS had a big down day

Days when LLY had a big down day

Full Comparison of Hims & Hers Health vs. Eli Lilly (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Hims & Hers Health vs Eli Lilly: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: HIMS or LLY?

Does HIMS provide diversification when held with LLY?

How bad are the worst 5% days for HIMS vs LLY?

Do HIMS and LLY crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: HIMS or LLY?

Can HIMS and LLY be combined in a portfolio?