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Compare · GDXJ vs GDX · 2026

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF

A year of returns, risk, and volatility, compared.

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) are compared across trailing return, volatility, drawdown, and risk-adjusted metrics.

Last updated:

Analysis period: 2025-04-25 to 2026-04-23

Gale Finance Team
Written by Gale Finance Team
Sid Kalla
Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder
Quick answer

Which is a better investment: GDXJ or GDX?

Over the past year, GDXJ outperformed GDX. GDXJ returned +104.3% compared with GDX’s +90.2%. GDXJ had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.63 versus GDX’s 1.59. GDX was less volatile than GDXJ, and GDX had a smaller max drawdown than GDXJ.

Total Return
GDXJ +104.3%
GDX +90.2%
Sharpe Ratio
GDXJ 1.63
GDX 1.59
Annualized Volatility
GDXJ 49.4%
GDX 44.8%
Max Drawdown
GDXJ -32.9%
GDX -30.8%

Metric winners: Total Return: GDXJ; Sharpe Ratio: GDXJ; Annualized Volatility: GDX (less volatile); Max Drawdown: GDX (smaller drawdown).

GDXJ Total Return
↑ +104.3%
GDX Total Return
↑ +90.2%

Relative Performance of GDXJ vs GDX (Normalized to 100)

GDXJ GDX

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

7 events in this period
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Key Takeaways

  • Total Return: GDXJ delivered a +104.3% total return, while GDX returned +90.2% over the same period. GDXJ outperformed on total returns.
  • Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): GDXJ had a higher Sharpe (1.63 vs 1.59), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
  • Volatility (Annualized): GDXJ was more volatile, with 49.4% annualized volatility, versus 44.8% for GDX.
  • Maximum Drawdown: GDX's maximum drawdown was -30.8%, while GDXJ experienced a deeper drawdown of -32.9%.
  • Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), GDXJ's VaR was -6.00% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -8.32%; GDX's were -4.66% and -7.50%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
  • Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: GDXJ -1.02 vs GDX -1.07. Excess kurtosis: GDXJ 2.63 vs GDX 2.84. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
  • Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): GDXJ 12/1, GDX 12/2. Worst day: GDXJ -13.63% (2026-01-30) vs GDX -12.76% (2026-01-30). Best day: GDXJ +8.53% (2026-03-31) vs GDX +6.97% (2026-03-31).
  • Risk ratios: Sortino - GDXJ: 2.26 vs. GDX: 2.18 , Calmar - GDXJ: 3.20 vs. GDX: 2.95 , Sterling - GDXJ: 4.79 vs. GDX: 4.46 , Treynor - GDXJ: 0.89 vs. GDX: 0.94 , Ulcer Index - GDXJ: 10.43% vs. GDX: 9.31%
Related:Gold vs VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF·Gold vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

GDXJ $20,428.17 +104.3%
GDX $19,020.12 +90.2%

Difference: $1,408.05 (GDXJ ahead)

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF Performance Over Time

Metric GDXJ GDX
30 Days 11.1% 10.4%
90 Days -15.9% -13.9%
180 Days 31.4% 27.5%
1 Year 104.3% 90.2%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF Correlation

Average Correlation
strongly correlated
0.98
Current (30-day) 0.99
30-day rolling range +0.93 to +0.99

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF and VanEck Gold Miners ETF are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.98, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both GDXJ and GDX provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric Value
Current (30-day) 0.99
Average (full period) 0.98
Minimum (30-day rolling) 0.93
Maximum (30-day rolling) 0.99

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown
GDXJ
-32.9%
GDX
-30.8%

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.9% from 2026-02-27 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF experienced its maximum drawdown of -30.8% from 2026-02-27 to 2026-03-20. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF Volatility (GDXJ vs GDX)

GDXJ Volatility
49.4%
±3.11% 1-day vol
GDX Volatility
44.8%
±2.82% 1-day vol
1-day volatility (1σ)
GDXJ
±3.11%
GDX
±2.82%

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF's 49.4% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.11% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF's 44.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.82% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

GDXJ had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; GDX was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of GDXJ and GDX

Sharpe Ratio: GDXJ vs. GDX

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better
Excess return Annualized volatility 0 75% vol 49.4% · excess +80.6% vol 44.8% · excess +71.2%
excess return / total volatility
Formula Sharpe=E[R]−RfσR\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. GDXJ had a higher Sharpe (1.63 vs 1.59), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of GDXJ and GDX

Sortino Ratio: GDXJ vs. GDX

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better
Frequency (days) Daily return (%) target -14.5% +9.4% 36 0
excess return / downside volatility
Formula Sortino=E[R]−Rfσdown\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). GDXJ had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: GDXJ 35.6% vs GDX 32.7%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of GDXJ and GDX

Calmar Ratio: GDXJ vs. GDX

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better
0% GDXJ +105.2% -32.9% GDX +91.0% -30.8%
CAGR / max drawdown
Formula Calmar=CAGR∣MaxDD∣\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. GDXJ posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of GDXJ and GDX

Sterling Ratio: GDXJ vs. GDX

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better
0% -9% -17% -26% -35% 10% drawdown threshold
excess annual return / average deep drawdown
Formula Sterling=CAGR−RfD‾>10%\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). GDXJ posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of GDXJ and GDX

Treynor Ratio: GDXJ vs. GDX

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better
Asset return Market return 0 0 β 0.91 β 0.76
excess return / market beta
Formula Treynor=E[R]−Rfβ\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. GDX posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of GDXJ and GDX

Ulcer Index: GDXJ vs. GDX

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better
0% -9% -17% -26% -35%
root-mean-square drawdown
Formula UI=E[Dt2]\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. GDX had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs. VanEck Gold Miners ETF

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right) so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: GDXJ vs. GDX (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns
GDXJ VaR 5% ES 5% GDX VaR 5% ES 5% -16.8% 0% +16.8% Daily log return
VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.
Formula VaR5%=Q0.05(rt),ES5%=E[rt∣rt≤VaR5%]\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]
Metric (1-Year) GDXJ GDX
5% VaR (daily log return) -6.00% -4.66%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -8.32% (worst 13 days) -7.50% (worst 13 days)
Skew -1.02 -1.07
Excess kurtosis 2.63 2.84
2σ tail days (down / up) 12 / 1 12 / 2
Worst day -13.63% (2026-01-30) -12.76% (2026-01-30)
Best day +8.53% (2026-03-31) +6.97% (2026-03-31)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: GDXJ vs. GDX (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both GDXJ and GDX crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ
-2σ GDX -2σ GDXJ Joint downside zone -15.6% 0% +15.6% +16.7% 0% -16.7% GDX daily log return GDXJ daily log return
Shared daily return 249
GDXJ Downside threshold -6.00%
GDX Downside threshold -5.44%
Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both GDXJ and GDX had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval) GDXJ GDX
2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12 -8.10% -7.44%
2025-10-17 -7.69% -6.76%
2025-10-21 -10.38% -9.42%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 -6.40% -5.96%
2026-01-30 -13.63% -12.76%
2026-02-05 -7.04% -6.34%
2026-02-12 -8.73% -7.26%
2026-03-03 -8.91% -8.76%
2026-03-18 -7.00% -6.23%
2026-03-19 -6.36% -5.91%
2026-04-21 -6.90% -6.19%

Days when GDXJ had a big down day

Date (interval) GDXJ GDX
2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12 -8.10% -7.44%
2025-10-17 -7.69% -6.76%
2025-10-21 -10.38% -9.42%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 -6.40% -5.96%
2026-01-30 -13.63% -12.76%
2026-02-05 -7.04% -6.34%
2026-02-12 -8.73% -7.26%
2026-03-03 -8.91% -8.76%
2026-03-18 -7.00% -6.23%
2026-03-19 -6.36% -5.91%
2026-03-26 -6.51% -4.55%
2026-04-21 -6.90% -6.19%

Days when GDX had a big down day

Date (interval) GDXJ GDX
2025-05-09 → 2025-05-12 -8.10% -7.44%
2025-10-17 -7.69% -6.76%
2025-10-21 -10.38% -9.42%
2025-12-26 → 2025-12-29 -6.40% -5.96%
2026-01-30 -13.63% -12.76%
2026-02-05 -7.04% -6.34%
2026-02-12 -8.73% -7.26%
2026-03-03 -8.91% -8.76%
2026-03-13 -5.82% -6.08%
2026-03-18 -7.00% -6.23%
2026-03-19 -6.36% -5.91%
2026-04-21 -6.90% -6.19%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs. VanEck Gold Miners ETF (1-Year)

Metric GDXJ GDX
Total Return +104.3% +90.2%
Annualized Volatility 49.4% 44.8%
Sharpe Ratio 1.63 1.59
Sortino Ratio 2.26 2.18
Calmar Ratio 3.20 2.95
Sterling Ratio 4.79 4.46
Treynor Ratio 0.89 0.94
Ulcer Index 10.43% 9.31%
Max Drawdown -32.9% -30.8%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500 0.24 0.23
5% VaR (daily log return) -6.00% -4.66%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) -8.32% -7.50%
Skew -1.02 -1.07
Excess kurtosis 2.63 2.84
2σ tail days (down / up) 12 / 1 12 / 2
Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics
2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes)
220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year)
GDXJ: 252 days/year; GDX: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate
Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:
  • GDXJ: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
  • GDX: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb)
Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.
  • GDXJ: ≈ -12.2%/yr
  • GDX: ≈ -10.0%/yr
Data alignment
No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions
Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return
rt=PtPt−1−1r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1
Volatility
σann=σ(rt)A\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}
Volatility drag (approx.)
drag≈12σann2\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2
Sharpe Ratio
S=A rˉ−rfσ(rt)AS = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}
Sortino Ratio
So=A rˉ−rfE[min⁡(0, rt−rf/A)2] ASo = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}
Maximum Drawdown
MDD=min⁡t(Ptmax⁡s≤tPs−1)MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)
Average Correlation
ρ=cov⁡(rA, rB)σA σB\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}
Log returns
ℓt=ln⁡(PtPt−1)\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)
Notation
PtP_t
Price on day t.
rtr_t
Simple daily return.
ℓt\ell_t
Log daily return.
rˉ\bar{r}
Average daily return.
σ(rt)\sigma(r_t)
Standard deviation of daily returns.
AA
Annualization factor (days/year).
rfr_f
Annual risk-free rate.

VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF vs VanEck Gold Miners ETF: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: GDXJ or GDX?

GDXJ showed higher volatility at 49.4% annualized, compared to 44.8% for GDX Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does GDXJ provide diversification when held with GDX?

GDXJ and GDX are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.98. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for GDXJ vs GDX?

Over the past year, GDXJ's 5% VaR was -6.00% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -8.32% (worst 13 days). GDX's were -4.66% and -7.50% (worst 13 days).

Do GDXJ and GDX crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when GDX has a 2σ down day, GDXJ also does 91.7% (11/12 days). In the other direction, when GDXJ has one, GDX also does 91.7% (11/12 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: GDXJ or GDX?

GDXJ showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.63 versus GDX's 1.59 Over the past year.

Can GDXJ and GDX be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. GDXJ's higher volatility (49.4%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

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