Ethereum vs S&P 500 (ETH vs SPY) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: ETH or SPY?

Over the past year, SPY looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (SPY +29.8% vs ETH +29.1%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (SPY 1.84 vs ETH 0.67). On risk, SPY was less volatile (SPY 12.5% vs ETH 71.8%), SPY had a smaller max drawdown (SPY -9.1% vs ETH -61.5%), and SPY had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of SPY -1.70% vs ETH -7.68%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Ethereum created the first blockchain geared towards running smart contracts. With a Turing complete programming language, Ethereum was able to attract early developers who wanted to build complex applications on a permissionless blockchain. This was in contrast to Bitcoin's very limited programming language. Over time, Ethereum became the home for decentralized finance (DeFi) that allowed users access to financial tools in a permissionless manner as long as they had an internet connection. Most major stablecoins are also deployed on Ethereum.

Investors have the ability to invest in ETH via ETFs and treasury asset companies (DATs). Comparing ETH's recent performance to S&P500 helps set the stage for investors to understand the kinds of risks they are taking. However, with uncorrelated risk/return profile, ETH can provide strong diversification benefits to an equity-only portfolio.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ETH or SPY?

Over the past year, SPY outperformed ETH. SPY returned +29.8% compared with ETH’s +29.1%. SPY had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.84 versus ETH’s 0.67. SPY was less volatile than ETH, and SPY had a smaller max drawdown than ETH.

Total Return

ETH +29.1%

SPY +29.8%

Sharpe Ratio

ETH 0.67

SPY 1.84

Annualized Volatility

ETH 71.8%

SPY 12.5%

Max Drawdown

ETH -61.5%

SPY -9.1%

Metric winners: Total Return: SPY; Sharpe Ratio: SPY; Annualized Volatility: SPY (less volatile); Max Drawdown: SPY (smaller drawdown).

ETH Total Return

↑ +29.1%

SPY Total Return

↑ +29.8%

Relative Performance of ETH vs SPY (Normalized to 100)

ETH SPY

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: ETH delivered a +29.1% total return, while SPY returned +29.8% over the same period. SPY outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SPY had a higher Sharpe (1.84 vs 0.67), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): ETH was more volatile, with 71.8% annualized volatility, versus 12.5% for SPY.
Maximum Drawdown: SPY's maximum drawdown was -9.1%, while ETH experienced a deeper drawdown of -61.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ETH's VaR was -5.69% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -7.68%; SPY's were -1.32% and -1.70%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ETH 0.44 vs SPY 0.03. Excess kurtosis: ETH 2.81 vs SPY 1.96. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ETH 8/9, SPY 10/5. Worst day: ETH -12.20% (2025-10-10) vs SPY -2.70% (2025-10-10). Best day: ETH +21.39% (2025-05-08) vs SPY +3.30% (2025-05-12).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ETH: 1.04 vs. SPY: 2.82 , Calmar - ETH: 0.50 vs. SPY: 3.28 , Sterling - ETH: 0.98 vs. SPY: No 10% drawdown , Treynor - ETH: 0.22 vs. SPY: 0.23 , Ulcer Index - ETH: 33.13% vs. SPY: 1.98%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

ETH $12,913.16 +29.1%

SPY $12,977.57 +29.8%

Difference: $64.41 (SPY ahead)

Ethereum vs S&P 500 Performance Over Time

Metric	ETH	SPY
30 Days	6.3%	8.5%
90 Days	-21.9%	2.8%
180 Days	-41.6%	4.9%
1 Year	30.5%	29.8%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Ethereum vs S&P 500 Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.43

Current (30-day) 0.14

30-day rolling range -0.05 to +0.80

Ethereum and S&P 500 are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.43, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.14
Average (full period)	0.43
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.05
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.80

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

ETH

-61.5%

SPY

-9.1%

Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -61.5% from 2025-08-22 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

S&P 500 experienced its maximum drawdown of -9.1% from 2026-01-27 to 2026-03-30. It took 16 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Ethereum vs S&P 500 Volatility (ETH vs SPY)

ETH Volatility

71.8%

±3.76% 1-day vol

SPY Volatility

12.5%

±0.79% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

ETH

±3.76%

SPY

±0.79%

Ethereum's 71.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.76% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

S&P 500's 12.5% annualized volatility translates to about ±0.79% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

ETH had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; SPY was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of ETH and SPY

Sharpe Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SPY had a higher Sharpe (1.84 vs 0.67), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ETH and SPY

Sortino Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SPY had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ETH 45.9% vs SPY 8.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ETH and SPY

Calmar Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. SPY posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ETH and SPY

Sterling Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). SPY had no 10% drawdown in this lookback, so Sterling is not calculated.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ETH and SPY

Treynor Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. SPY posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ETH and SPY

Ulcer Index: ETH vs. SPY

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. SPY had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Ethereum vs. S&P 500

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: ETH vs. SPY (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	ETH	SPY
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.69%	-1.32%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.68% (worst 19 days)	-1.70% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.44	0.03
Excess kurtosis	2.81	1.96
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 9	10 / 5
Worst day	-12.20% (2025-10-10)	-2.70% (2025-10-10)
Best day	+21.39% (2025-05-08)	+3.30% (2025-05-12)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: ETH vs. SPY (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both ETH and SPY crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ETH and SPY had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ETH	SPY
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-2.70%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-8.72%	-2.04%

Days when ETH had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	SPY
2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25	-9.27%	-0.44%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-2.70%
2025-11-04	-8.44%	-1.19%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-8.72%	-2.04%
2026-01-30	-10.58%	-0.30%
2026-02-04	-11.38%	-0.48%

Days when SPY had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	SPY
2025-05-21	+1.37%	-1.69%
2025-08-01	-5.78%	-1.64%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-2.70%
2025-11-13	-5.10%	-1.66%
2025-11-20	-6.15%	-1.52%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-8.72%	-2.04%
2026-02-12	+5.68%	-1.54%
2026-03-12	+1.19%	-1.52%
2026-03-26	-3.85%	-1.79%
2026-03-27	+1.31%	-1.71%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. S&P 500 (1-Year)

Metric	ETH	SPY
Total Return	+29.1%	+29.8%
Annualized Volatility	71.8%	12.5%
Sharpe Ratio	0.67	1.84
Sortino Ratio	1.04	2.82
Calmar Ratio	0.50	3.28
Sterling Ratio	0.98	No 10% drawdown
Treynor Ratio	0.22	0.23
Ulcer Index	33.13%	1.98%
Max Drawdown	-61.5%	-9.1%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.47	1.00
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.69%	-1.32%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.68%	-1.70%
Skew	0.44	0.03
Excess kurtosis	2.81	1.96
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 9	10 / 5

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ETH: 365 days/year; SPY: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ETH: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

SPY: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ETH: ≈ -25.8%/yr

SPY: ≈ -0.8%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Ethereum vs S&P 500: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ETH or SPY?

ETH showed higher volatility at 71.8% annualized, compared to 12.5% for SPY Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ETH provide diversification when held with SPY?

ETH and SPY are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.43. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs SPY?

Over the past year, ETH's 5% VaR was -5.69% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -7.68% (worst 19 days). SPY's were -1.32% and -1.70% (worst 13 days).

Do ETH and SPY crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when SPY has a 2σ down day, ETH also does 20.0% (2/10 days). In the other direction, when ETH has one, SPY also does 33.3% (2/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or SPY?

SPY showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.84 versus ETH's 0.67 Over the past year.

Can ETH and SPY be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. ETH's higher volatility (71.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: ETH or SPY?

Share This Comparison of ETH vs SPY

Relative Performance of ETH vs SPY (Normalized to 100)

Trade ETH or SPY

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Ethereum vs S&P 500 Performance Over Time

Ethereum vs S&P 500 Correlation

Drawdown

Ethereum vs S&P 500 Volatility (ETH vs SPY)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of ETH and SPY

Sharpe Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Sortino Ratio of ETH and SPY

Sortino Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Calmar Ratio of ETH and SPY

Calmar Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Sterling Ratio of ETH and SPY

Sterling Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Treynor Ratio of ETH and SPY

Treynor Ratio: ETH vs. SPY

Ulcer Index of ETH and SPY

Ulcer Index: ETH vs. SPY

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Ethereum vs. S&P 500

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: ETH vs. SPY (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: ETH vs. SPY (2σ)

Days when both ETH and SPY had a big down day (2σ)

Days when ETH had a big down day

Days when SPY had a big down day

Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. S&P 500 (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Ethereum vs S&P 500: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ETH or SPY?

Does ETH provide diversification when held with SPY?

How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs SPY?

Do ETH and SPY crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or SPY?

Can ETH and SPY be combined in a portfolio?