Ethereum vs Solana (ETH vs SOL) 2026: Crypto Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: ETH or SOL?

Over the past year, ETH looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (ETH +30.5% vs SOL -43.9%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (ETH 0.67 vs SOL -0.47). On risk, ETH was less volatile (ETH 71.8% vs SOL 73.8%), ETH had a smaller max drawdown (ETH -61.5% vs SOL -68.6%), and ETH had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of ETH -7.68% vs SOL -8.52%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Ethereum, created in 2015 by Vitalik Buterin, first introduced the idea of using blockchains for Turing complete smart contracts, allowing developers to build permissionless apps. However, Ethereum suffered from scalability issues during its hypergrowth period, which allowed competitors to pitch "faster, cheaper, more scalable" blockchains. Ethereum's scaling solution, to increase throughput not at the base layer but via layer-2s, fragmented liquidity and created considerable hurdles to user experience and user acquisition. Each layer-2 felt like a siloed ecosystem rather than an integrated whole.

Solana, one of the projects that emerged in 2020 to take on this challenge, has seen a thriving ecosystem of apps and developers. It's vision is to scale the chain horizontally by increasing its throughput. While seemingly more centralized than Ethereum, Solana has been able to attract developers and build many successful protocols like pump.fun for memecoin launches. It has emerged as a strong competitor to Ethereum as the go-to smart contract platform.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ETH or SOL?

Over the past year, ETH outperformed SOL. ETH returned +30.5% compared with SOL’s -43.9%. ETH had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.67 versus SOL’s -0.47. ETH was less volatile than SOL, and ETH had a smaller max drawdown than SOL.

Total Return

ETH +30.5%

SOL -43.9%

Sharpe Ratio

ETH 0.67

SOL -0.47

Annualized Volatility

ETH 71.8%

SOL 73.8%

Max Drawdown

ETH -61.5%

SOL -68.6%

Metric winners: Total Return: ETH; Sharpe Ratio: ETH; Annualized Volatility: ETH (less volatile); Max Drawdown: ETH (smaller drawdown).

ETH Total Return

↑ +30.5%

SOL Total Return

↓ -43.9%

Relative Performance of ETH vs SOL (Normalized to 100)

ETH SOL

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: ETH delivered a +30.5% total return, while SOL returned -43.9% over the same period. ETH outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.47) while ETH was positive (0.67), indicating ETH had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 73.8% annualized volatility, versus 71.8% for ETH.
Maximum Drawdown: ETH's maximum drawdown was -61.5%, while SOL experienced a deeper drawdown of -68.6%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ETH's VaR was -5.69% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -7.68%; SOL's were -6.03% and -8.52%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ETH 0.44 vs SOL -0.05. Excess kurtosis: ETH 2.81 vs SOL 1.13. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ETH 8/9, SOL 9/10. Worst day: ETH -12.20% (2025-10-10) vs SOL -14.00% (2025-10-10). Best day: ETH +21.39% (2025-05-08) vs SOL +12.56% (2026-02-24).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ETH: 1.04 vs. SOL: -0.67 , Calmar - ETH: 0.50 vs. SOL: -0.64 , Sterling - ETH: 0.98 vs. SOL: -1.21 , Treynor - ETH: 0.22 vs. SOL: -0.22 , Ulcer Index - ETH: 33.13% vs. SOL: 39.78%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 24, 2025:

ETH $13,054.78 +30.5%

SOL $5,611.83 -43.9%

Difference: $7,442.95 (ETH ahead)

Ethereum vs Solana Performance Over Time

Metric	ETH	SOL
30 Days	6.3%	-6.8%
90 Days	-21.9%	-32.9%
180 Days	-41.6%	-55.9%
1 Year	30.5%	-43.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Ethereum vs Solana Correlation

Average Correlation

strongly correlated

0.87

Current (30-day) 0.80

30-day rolling range +0.58 to +0.97

Ethereum and Solana are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.87, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.

For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both ETH and SOL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.80
Average (full period)	0.87
Minimum (30-day rolling)	0.58
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.97

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

ETH

-61.5%

SOL

-68.6%

Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -61.5% from 2025-08-22 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -68.6% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-02-11. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Ethereum vs Solana Volatility (ETH vs SOL)

ETH Volatility

71.8%

±3.76% 1-day vol

SOL Volatility

73.8%

±3.86% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

ETH

±3.76%

SOL

±3.86%

Ethereum's 71.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.76% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Solana's 73.8% annualized volatility translates to about ±3.86% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

SOL had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; ETH was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. ETH had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Ethereum vs. Solana

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: ETH vs. SOL (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	ETH	SOL
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.69%	-6.03%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.68% (worst 19 days)	-8.52% (worst 19 days)
Skew	0.44	-0.05
Excess kurtosis	2.81	1.13
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 9	9 / 10
Worst day	-12.20% (2025-10-10)	-14.00% (2025-10-10)
Best day	+21.39% (2025-05-08)	+12.56% (2026-02-24)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: ETH vs. SOL (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both ETH and SOL crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ETH and SOL had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ETH	SOL
2025-08-25	-8.30%	-9.08%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-14.00%
2025-11-03	-7.91%	-11.36%
2026-01-30	-10.58%	-11.27%
2026-02-04	-11.38%	-12.17%

Days when ETH had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	SOL
2025-06-05	-7.23%	-5.85%
2025-08-25	-8.30%	-9.08%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-14.00%
2025-11-03	-7.91%	-11.36%
2025-11-04	-8.44%	-6.28%
2026-01-19	-7.95%	-5.47%
2026-01-30	-10.58%	-11.27%
2026-02-04	-11.38%	-12.17%

Days when SOL had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	SOL
2025-07-23	-3.12%	-7.65%
2025-08-25	-8.30%	-9.08%
2025-09-25	-6.88%	-9.18%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-14.00%
2025-11-03	-7.91%	-11.36%
2025-11-11	-4.15%	-7.88%
2026-01-30	-10.58%	-11.27%
2026-02-03	-5.35%	-7.72%
2026-02-04	-11.38%	-12.17%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. Solana (1-Year)

Metric	ETH	SOL
Total Return	+30.5%	-43.9%
Annualized Volatility	71.8%	73.8%
Sharpe Ratio	0.67	-0.47
Sortino Ratio	1.04	-0.67
Calmar Ratio	0.50	-0.64
Sterling Ratio	0.98	-1.21
Treynor Ratio	0.22	-0.22
Ulcer Index	33.13%	39.78%
Max Drawdown	-61.5%	-68.6%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.47	0.40
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.69%	-6.03%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-7.68%	-8.52%
Skew	0.44	-0.05
Excess kurtosis	2.81	1.13
2σ tail days (down / up)	8 / 9	9 / 10

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 335 rolling 30-day values (from 364 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ETH: 365 days/year; SOL: 365 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ETH: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

SOL: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ETH: ≈ -25.8%/yr

SOL: ≈ -27.2%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Ethereum vs Solana: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ETH or SOL?

SOL showed higher volatility at 73.8% annualized, compared to 71.8% for ETH Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ETH provide diversification when held with SOL?

ETH and SOL are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.87. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs SOL?

Over the past year, ETH's 5% VaR was -5.69% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -7.68% (worst 19 days). SOL's were -6.03% and -8.52% (worst 19 days).

Do ETH and SOL crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=364), when SOL has a 2σ down day, ETH also does 55.6% (5/9 days). In the other direction, when ETH has one, SOL also does 62.5% (5/8 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or SOL?

SOL had a negative Sharpe (-0.47) while ETH was positive (0.67) Over the past year, indicating ETH had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can ETH and SOL be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. SOL's higher volatility (73.8%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: ETH or SOL?

Share This Comparison of ETH vs SOL

Relative Performance of ETH vs SOL (Normalized to 100)

Trade ETH or SOL

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Ethereum vs Solana Performance Over Time

Ethereum vs Solana Correlation

Drawdown

Ethereum vs Solana Volatility (ETH vs SOL)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of ETH and SOL

Sharpe Ratio: ETH vs. SOL

Sortino Ratio of ETH and SOL

Sortino Ratio: ETH vs. SOL

Calmar Ratio of ETH and SOL

Calmar Ratio: ETH vs. SOL

Sterling Ratio of ETH and SOL

Sterling Ratio: ETH vs. SOL

Treynor Ratio of ETH and SOL

Treynor Ratio: ETH vs. SOL

Ulcer Index of ETH and SOL

Ulcer Index: ETH vs. SOL