ETH vs QQQ: Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: ETH or QQQ?

Over the past year, QQQ looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (QQQ +23.9% vs ETH -10.5%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (QQQ 0.87 vs ETH 0.17). On risk, QQQ was less volatile (QQQ 23.3% vs ETH 77.1%), QQQ had a smaller max drawdown (QQQ -18.0% vs ETH -61.5%), and QQQ had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of QQQ -3.35% vs ETH -9.00%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Ethereum is the closest proxy in the digital asset industry to the NASDAQ with its reliance on evolving technology.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ETH or QQQ?

Over the past year, QQQ outperformed (-10.5% vs +23.9%) with a Sharpe ratio of 0.87.

Total Return

ETH -10.5%

QQQ WIN +23.9%

Sharpe Ratio

ETH 0.17

QQQ WIN 0.87

Annualized Volatility

ETH 77.1%

QQQ WIN 23.3%

Max Drawdown

ETH -61.5%

QQQ WIN -18.0%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

ETH Total Return

↓ -10.5%

QQQ Total Return

↑ +23.9%

Relative Performance of ETH vs QQQ (Normalized to 100)

ETH QQQ

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: ETH delivered a -10.5% total return, while QQQ returned +23.9% over the same period. QQQ outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): QQQ had a higher Sharpe (0.87 vs 0.17), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): ETH was more volatile, with 77.1% annualized volatility, versus 23.3% for QQQ.
Maximum Drawdown: QQQ's maximum drawdown was -18.0%, while ETH experienced a deeper drawdown of -61.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ETH's VaR was -5.99% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.00%; QQQ's were -2.06% and -3.35%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ETH 0.24 vs QQQ 0.99. Excess kurtosis: ETH 3.13 vs QQQ 15.96. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ETH 11/11, QQQ 6/2. Worst day: ETH -14.66% (2025-03-03) vs QQQ -6.21% (2025-04-04). Best day: ETH +21.39% (2025-05-08) vs QQQ +12.00% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ETH: 0.26 vs. QQQ: 1.30 , Calmar - ETH: -0.18 vs. QQQ: 1.34 , Sterling - ETH: -0.52 vs. QQQ: 1.10 , Treynor - ETH: 0.02 vs. QQQ: 0.17 , Ulcer Index - ETH: 27.52% vs. QQQ: 4.21%

Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 Correlation

0.53 Average Correlation

Ethereum and Nasdaq 100 are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.53, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.23
Average (full period)	0.53
Minimum	0.13
Maximum	0.78

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

ETH $8,946.22 -10.5%

QQQ $12,388.76 +23.9%

Difference: $3,442.54 (QQQ ahead)

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Ethereum and Nasdaq 100: Risk Analysis

Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -61.5% from 2025-08-22 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Nasdaq 100 experienced its maximum drawdown of -18% from 2025-02-28 to 2025-04-08. It took 34 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of ETH and QQQ

ETH Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.17

QQQ Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.87

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. QQQ had a higher Sharpe (0.87 vs 0.17), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ETH and QQQ

ETH Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.26

QQQ Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.30

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). QQQ had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ETH 51.2% vs QQQ 15.5%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ETH and QQQ

ETH Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.18

QQQ Calmar Ratio

↑ 1.34

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. QQQ posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ETH and QQQ

ETH Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.52

QQQ Sterling Ratio

↑ 1.10

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). QQQ posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ETH and QQQ

ETH Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.02

QQQ Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.17

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. QQQ posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ETH and QQQ

ETH Ulcer Index

27.52%

QQQ Ulcer Index

4.21%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. QQQ had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Ethereum vs. Nasdaq 100

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	ETH	QQQ
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.99%	-2.06%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.00% (worst 19 days)	-3.35% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.24	0.99
Excess kurtosis	3.13	15.96
2σ tail days (down / up)	11 / 11	6 / 2
Worst day	-14.66% (2025-03-03)	-6.21% (2025-04-04)
Best day	+21.39% (2025-05-08)	+12.00% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When QQQ has a big down day, ETH also does

33.3%

2 / 6 days

When ETH has a big down day, QQQ also does

33.3%

2 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ETH and QQQ had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ETH	QQQ
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-12.22%	-3.88%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-3.47%

Days when ETH had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	QQQ
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-12.22%	-3.88%
2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07	-14.25%	+0.24%
2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25	-9.27%	-0.29%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-3.47%
2026-01-30	-10.58%	-1.20%
2026-02-04	-11.38%	-1.75%

Days when QQQ had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	QQQ
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-12.22%	-3.88%
2025-04-03	+1.25%	-5.35%
2025-04-04	-0.21%	-6.21%
2025-04-10	-8.34%	-4.25%
2025-04-16	-0.64%	-3.02%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-3.47%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 Volatility (ETH vs QQQ)

ETH Volatility

77.1%

±4.04% daily

QQQ Volatility

23.3%

±1.47% daily

Typical daily swing

ETH

±4.04%

QQQ

±1.47%

Ethereum's annualized volatility of 77.1% means it typically moves ±4.04% on any given day.

Nasdaq 100's annualized volatility of 23.3% means it typically moves ±1.47% on any given day.

ETH's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while QQQ's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100 Performance Over Time

Metric	ETH	QQQ
30 Days	-31.6%	-1.4%
90 Days	-31.6%	0.5%
180 Days	-52.7%	8.4%
1 Year	-11.3%	23.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. Nasdaq 100 (1-Year)

Metric	ETH	QQQ
Total Return	-10.5%	+23.9%
Annualized Volatility	77.1%	23.3%
Sharpe Ratio	0.17	0.87
Sortino Ratio	0.26	1.30
Calmar Ratio	-0.18	1.34
Sterling Ratio	-0.52	1.10
Treynor Ratio	0.02	0.17
Ulcer Index	27.52%	4.21%
Max Drawdown	-61.5%	-18.0%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.53	0.96
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.99%	-2.06%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.00%	-3.35%
Skew	0.24	0.99
Excess kurtosis	3.13	15.96
2σ tail days (down / up)	11 / 11	6 / 2

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ETH: 365 days/year; QQQ: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ETH: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.

QQQ: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ETH: ≈ -29.7%/yr

QQQ: ≈ -2.7%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Ethereum vs Nasdaq 100: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ETH or QQQ?

ETH showed higher volatility at 77.1% annualized, compared to 23.3% for QQQ Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ETH provide diversification when held with QQQ?

ETH and QQQ are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.53. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs QQQ?

Over the past year, ETH's 5% VaR was -5.99% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.00% (worst 19 days). QQQ's were -2.06% and -3.35% (worst 13 days).

Do ETH and QQQ crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when QQQ has a 2σ down day, ETH also does 33.3% (2/6 days). In the other direction, when ETH has one, QQQ also does 33.3% (2/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or QQQ?

QQQ showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.87 versus ETH's 0.17 Over the past year.

Can ETH and QQQ be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. ETH's higher volatility (77.1%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.