ETH vs NVDA: Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)

Q: Which is a better investment: ETH or NVDA?

Over the past year, NVDA looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (NVDA +62.8% vs ETH -10.5%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (NVDA 1.26 vs ETH 0.17). On risk, NVDA was less volatile (NVDA 43.3% vs ETH 77.1%), NVDA had a smaller max drawdown (NVDA -24.5% vs ETH -61.5%), and NVDA had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of NVDA -5.98% vs ETH -9.00%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Ethereum and NVIDIA have a long-time relationship where before the AI boom, NVIDIA GPUs were extensively used for mining Ethereum. However, with the rise of AI, their fortunes have diverged.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ETH or NVDA?

Over the past year, NVDA outperformed (-10.5% vs +62.8%) with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26.

Total Return

ETH -10.5%

NVDA WIN +62.8%

Sharpe Ratio

ETH 0.17

NVDA WIN 1.26

Annualized Volatility

ETH 77.1%

NVDA WIN 43.3%

Max Drawdown

ETH -61.5%

NVDA WIN -24.5%

Analysis period: 2025-02-27 to 2026-02-25

ETH Total Return

↓ -10.5%

NVDA Total Return

↑ +62.8%

Relative Performance of ETH vs NVDA (Normalized to 100)

ETH NVDA

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

Key Takeaways

Total Return: ETH delivered a -10.5% total return, while NVDA returned +62.8% over the same period. NVDA outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): NVDA had a higher Sharpe (1.26 vs 0.17), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.
Volatility (Annualized): ETH was more volatile, with 77.1% annualized volatility, versus 43.3% for NVDA.
Maximum Drawdown: NVDA's maximum drawdown was -24.5%, while ETH experienced a deeper drawdown of -61.5%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ETH's VaR was -5.99% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -9.00%; NVDA's were -4.04% and -5.98%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ETH 0.24 vs NVDA 0.54. Excess kurtosis: ETH 3.13 vs NVDA 6.46. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ETH 11/11, NVDA 8/4. Worst day: ETH -14.66% (2025-03-03) vs NVDA -8.69% (2025-03-03). Best day: ETH +21.39% (2025-05-08) vs NVDA +18.72% (2025-04-09).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ETH: 0.26 vs. NVDA: 1.95 , Calmar - ETH: -0.18 vs. NVDA: 2.58 , Sterling - ETH: -0.52 vs. NVDA: 2.82 , Treynor - ETH: 0.02 vs. NVDA: 0.32 , Ulcer Index - ETH: 27.52% vs. NVDA: 8.39%

Ethereum vs Nvidia Correlation

0.34 Average Correlation

Ethereum and Nvidia are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.34, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.20
Average (full period)	0.34
Minimum	-0.06
Maximum	0.54

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 27, 2025:

ETH $8,946.22 -10.5%

NVDA $16,280.67 +62.8%

Difference: $7,334.45 (NVDA ahead)

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Ethereum and Nvidia: Risk Analysis

Ethereum experienced its maximum drawdown of -61.5% from 2025-08-22 to 2026-02-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Nvidia experienced its maximum drawdown of -24.5% from 2025-02-28 to 2025-04-04. It took 39 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Sharpe Ratio of ETH and NVDA

ETH Sharpe Ratio

↑ 0.17

NVDA Sharpe Ratio

↑ 1.26

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. NVDA had a higher Sharpe (1.26 vs 0.17), indicating better risk-adjusted performance.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ETH and NVDA

ETH Sortino Ratio

↑ 0.26

NVDA Sortino Ratio

↑ 1.95

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). NVDA had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ETH 51.2% vs NVDA 27.8%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ETH and NVDA

ETH Calmar Ratio

↓ -0.18

NVDA Calmar Ratio

↑ 2.58

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. NVDA posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ETH and NVDA

ETH Sterling Ratio

↓ -0.52

NVDA Sterling Ratio

↑ 2.82

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). NVDA posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ETH and NVDA

ETH Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.02

NVDA Treynor Ratio

↑ 0.32

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. NVDA posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ETH and NVDA

ETH Ulcer Index

27.52%

NVDA Ulcer Index

8.39%

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. NVDA had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Ethereum vs. Nvidia

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Metric (1-Year)	ETH	NVDA
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.99%	-4.04%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.00% (worst 19 days)	-5.98% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.24	0.54
Excess kurtosis	3.13	6.46
2σ tail days (down / up)	11 / 11	8 / 4
Worst day	-14.66% (2025-03-03)	-8.69% (2025-03-03)
Best day	+21.39% (2025-05-08)	+18.72% (2025-04-09)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

When NVDA has a big down day, ETH also does

12.5%

1 / 8 days

When ETH has a big down day, NVDA also does

16.7%

1 / 6 days

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ETH and NVDA had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	ETH	NVDA
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-12.22%	-5.07%

Days when ETH had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	NVDA
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-12.22%	-5.07%
2025-04-04 → 2025-04-07	-14.25%	+3.53%
2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25	-9.27%	+1.02%
2025-10-10	-12.20%	-4.89%
2026-01-30	-10.58%	-0.72%
2026-02-04	-11.38%	-3.41%

Days when NVDA had a big down day

Date (interval)	ETH	NVDA
2025-02-28 → 2025-03-03	-3.89%	-8.69%
2025-03-06	-1.74%	-5.74%
2025-03-07 → 2025-03-10	-12.22%	-5.07%
2025-03-26	-2.84%	-5.74%
2025-04-03	+1.25%	-7.81%
2025-04-04	-0.21%	-7.36%
2025-04-10	-8.34%	-5.91%
2025-04-16	-0.64%	-6.87%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Ethereum vs Nvidia Volatility (ETH vs NVDA)

ETH Volatility

77.1%

±4.04% daily

NVDA Volatility

43.3%

±2.73% daily

Typical daily swing

ETH

±4.04%

NVDA

±2.73%

Ethereum's annualized volatility of 77.1% means it typically moves ±4.04% on any given day.

Nvidia's annualized volatility of 43.3% means it typically moves ±2.73% on any given day.

ETH's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while NVDA's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.

For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.

Ethereum vs Nvidia Performance Over Time

Metric	ETH	NVDA
30 Days	-31.6%	4.9%
90 Days	-31.6%	8.5%
180 Days	-52.7%	12.3%
1 Year	-11.3%	62.8%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Full Comparison of Ethereum vs. Nvidia (1-Year)

Metric	ETH	NVDA
Total Return	-10.5%	+62.8%
Annualized Volatility	77.1%	43.3%
Sharpe Ratio	0.17	1.26
Sortino Ratio	0.26	1.95
Calmar Ratio	-0.18	2.58
Sterling Ratio	-0.52	2.82
Treynor Ratio	0.02	0.32
Ulcer Index	27.52%	8.39%
Max Drawdown	-61.5%	-24.5%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.53	0.66
5% VaR (daily log return)	-5.99%	-4.04%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-9.00%	-5.98%
Skew	0.24	0.54
Excess kurtosis	3.13	6.46
2σ tail days (down / up)	11 / 11	8 / 4

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ETH: 365 days/year; NVDA: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ETH: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.

NVDA: 4.20% over 2025-02-27 → 2026-02-25.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ETH: ≈ -29.7%/yr

NVDA: ≈ -9.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Ethereum vs Nvidia: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ETH or NVDA?

ETH showed higher volatility at 77.1% annualized, compared to 43.3% for NVDA Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ETH provide diversification when held with NVDA?

ETH and NVDA are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.34. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ETH vs NVDA?

Over the past year, ETH's 5% VaR was -5.99% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -9.00% (worst 19 days). NVDA's were -4.04% and -5.98% (worst 13 days).

Do ETH and NVDA crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when NVDA has a 2σ down day, ETH also does 12.5% (1/8 days). In the other direction, when ETH has one, NVDA also does 16.7% (1/6 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ETH or NVDA?

NVDA showed better risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 1.26 versus ETH's 0.17 Over the past year.

Can ETH and NVDA be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. ETH's higher volatility (77.1%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.