Circle vs Visa (CRCL vs V) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: CRCL or V?

Over the past year, V looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (V +6.6% vs CRCL -34.8%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (V 0.23 vs CRCL -0.01). On risk, V was less volatile (V 22.0% vs CRCL 97.1%), V had a smaller max drawdown (V -17.2% vs CRCL -66.6%), and V had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of V -2.86% vs CRCL -12.49%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Returns shown in USD.

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: CRCL or V?

Over the past year, V outperformed CRCL. V returned +6.6% compared with CRCL’s -34.8%. V had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.23 versus CRCL’s -0.01. V was less volatile than CRCL, and V had a smaller max drawdown than CRCL.

Total Return

CRCL -34.8%

V +6.6%

Sharpe Ratio

CRCL -0.01

V 0.23

Annualized Volatility

CRCL 97.1%

V 22.0%

Max Drawdown

CRCL -66.6%

V -17.2%

Metric winners: Total Return: V; Sharpe Ratio: V; Annualized Volatility: V (less volatile); Max Drawdown: V (smaller drawdown).

CRCL Total Return

↓ -34.8%

V Total Return

↑ +6.6%

Relative Performance of CRCL vs V (Normalized to 100)

CRCL V

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: CRCL delivered a -34.8% total return, while V returned +6.6% over the same period. V outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): CRCL had a negative Sharpe (-0.01) while V was positive (0.23), indicating V had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): CRCL was more volatile, with 97.1% annualized volatility, versus 22.0% for V.
Maximum Drawdown: V's maximum drawdown was -17.2%, while CRCL experienced a deeper drawdown of -66.6%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), CRCL's VaR was -9.40% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -12.49%; V's were -1.83% and -2.86%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: CRCL 0.46 vs V 0.74. Excess kurtosis: CRCL 3.14 vs V 5.47. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): CRCL 5/7, V 7/6. Worst day: CRCL -20.11% (2026-03-24) vs V -4.50% (2026-02-23). Best day: CRCL +35.47% (2026-02-25) vs V +8.26% (2026-04-29).
Risk ratios: Sortino - CRCL: -0.02 vs. V: 0.35 , Calmar - CRCL: -0.52 vs. V: 0.39 , Sterling - CRCL: -1.20 vs. V: 0.17 , Treynor - CRCL: -0.00 vs. V: 0.17 , Ulcer Index - CRCL: 40.62% vs. V: 7.75%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on August 22, 2025:

CRCL $6,515.11 -34.8%

V $10,664.42 +6.6%

Difference: $4,149.31 (V ahead)

Circle vs Visa Performance Over Time

Metric	CRCL	V
30 Days	33%	5%
90 Days	-22.2%	12.8%
180 Days	39.6%	15.8%
1 Year	-34.8%	6.6%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Circle vs Visa Correlation

Average Correlation

weakly correlated

0.08

Current (30-day) -0.17

30-day rolling range -0.21 to +0.35

Circle and Visa are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.08, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining CRCL and V could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	-0.17
Average (full period)	0.08
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.21
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.35

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

CRCL

-66.6%

-17.2%

Circle experienced its maximum drawdown of -66.6% from 2025-10-09 to 2026-02-05. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Visa experienced its maximum drawdown of -17.2% from 2026-01-06 to 2026-03-27. It took 97 days to recover.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Circle vs Visa Volatility (CRCL vs V)

CRCL Volatility

97.1%

±6.12% 1-day vol

V Volatility

22.0%

±1.39% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

CRCL

±6.12%

±1.39%

Circle's 97.1% annualized volatility translates to about ±6.12% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Visa's 22.0% annualized volatility translates to about ±1.39% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

CRCL had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; V was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of CRCL and V

Sharpe Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. CRCL had a negative Sharpe (-0.01) while V was positive (0.23), indicating V had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of CRCL and V

Sortino Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). V had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: CRCL 62.7% vs V 14.4%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of CRCL and V

Calmar Ratio: CRCL vs. V

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. V posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of CRCL and V

Sterling Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). V posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of CRCL and V

Treynor Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. V posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of CRCL and V

Ulcer Index: CRCL vs. V

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. V had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Circle vs. Visa

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: CRCL vs. V (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	CRCL	V
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.40%	-1.83%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.49% (worst 13 days)	-2.86% (worst 13 days)
Skew	0.46	0.74
Excess kurtosis	3.14	5.47
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 7	7 / 6
Worst day	-20.11% (2026-03-24)	-4.50% (2026-02-23)
Best day	+35.47% (2026-02-25)	+8.26% (2026-04-29)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=250). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: CRCL vs. V (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both CRCL and V crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both CRCL and V had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when CRCL had a big down day

Date (interval)	CRCL	V
2025-10-10	-11.66%	-0.98%
2025-11-06	-11.52%	-0.91%
2025-11-12	-12.21%	+0.19%
2026-03-24	-20.11%	-0.22%
2026-06-30	-17.55%	+0.42%

Days when V had a big down day

Date (interval)	CRCL	V
2025-10-16	-4.48%	-2.98%
2026-01-13	+0.68%	-4.46%
2026-01-30	-5.36%	-3.00%
2026-02-13	+6.02%	-3.12%
2026-02-20 → 2026-02-23	-2.94%	-4.50%
2026-03-18	+0.40%	-3.06%
2026-03-27	-4.69%	-3.28%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Circle vs. Visa (1-Year)

Metric	CRCL	V
Total Return	-34.8%	+6.6%
Annualized Volatility	97.1%	22.0%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.01	0.23
Sortino Ratio	-0.02	0.35
Calmar Ratio	-0.52	0.39
Sterling Ratio	-1.20	0.17
Treynor Ratio	-0.00	0.17
Ulcer Index	40.62%	7.75%
Max Drawdown	-66.6%	-17.2%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.40	0.23
5% VaR (daily log return)	-9.40%	-1.83%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-12.49%	-2.86%
Skew	0.46	0.74
Excess kurtosis	3.14	5.47
2σ tail days (down / up)	5 / 7	7 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 221 rolling 30-day values (from 250 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): CRCL: 252 days/year; V: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

CRCL: 3.81% over 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21.

V: 3.81% over 2025-08-22 → 2026-08-21.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

CRCL: ≈ -47.1%/yr

V: ≈ -2.4%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Circle vs Visa: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: CRCL or V?

CRCL showed higher volatility at 97.1% annualized, compared to 22.0% for V Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does CRCL provide diversification when held with V?

CRCL and V are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.08. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for CRCL vs V?

Over the past year, CRCL's 5% VaR was -9.40% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -12.49% (worst 13 days). V's were -1.83% and -2.86% (worst 13 days).

Do CRCL and V crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=250), when V has a 2σ down day, CRCL also does 0.0% (0/7 days). In the other direction, when CRCL has one, V also does 0.0% (0/5 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: CRCL or V?

CRCL had a negative Sharpe (-0.01) while V was positive (0.23) Over the past year, indicating V had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can CRCL and V be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. CRCL's higher volatility (97.1%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: CRCL or V?

Share This Comparison of CRCL vs V

Relative Performance of CRCL vs V (Normalized to 100)

Trade CRCL or V

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Circle vs Visa Performance Over Time

Circle vs Visa Correlation

Drawdown

Circle vs Visa Volatility (CRCL vs V)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of CRCL and V

Sharpe Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Sortino Ratio of CRCL and V

Sortino Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Calmar Ratio of CRCL and V

Calmar Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Sterling Ratio of CRCL and V

Sterling Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Treynor Ratio of CRCL and V

Treynor Ratio: CRCL vs. V

Ulcer Index of CRCL and V

Ulcer Index: CRCL vs. V

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Circle vs. Visa

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: CRCL vs. V (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: CRCL vs. V (2σ)

Days when both CRCL and V had a big down day (2σ)

Days when CRCL had a big down day

Days when V had a big down day

Full Comparison of Circle vs. Visa (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Circle vs Visa: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: CRCL or V?

Does CRCL provide diversification when held with V?

How bad are the worst 5% days for CRCL vs V?

Do CRCL and V crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: CRCL or V?

Can CRCL and V be combined in a portfolio?