Analysis period: 2024-12-30 to 2025-12-27
Cite This Comparison
"BTC vs SPY: Performance Comparison." Gale Finance, December 29, 2025. https://gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-spy Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Relative Performance (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Raw returns: SPY outperformed with 18.7% total return vs -6.9% for BTC.
- Risk-adjusted (Sharpe): SPY had better risk-adjusted returns with a Sharpe ratio of 0.77 vs -0.06 for BTC.
- Volatility: SPY was less volatile at 19.5% annualized vs 42.1% for BTC.
- Max drawdown: SPY had a shallower max drawdown of -18.8% vs -32.1% for BTC.
Correlation Analysis
BTC and SPY are weakly correlated over the past 6 months. With a correlation of 0.08, these assets show some independence, offering moderate diversification when held together.
| Metric | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.22 | |
| Average (full period) | 0.08 | |
| Minimum | -0.37 | |
| Maximum | 0.43 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on December 30, 2024:
Difference: $2,559.87 (SPY ahead)
Risk Analysis
BTC experienced its maximum drawdown of -32.1% from 2025-10-07 to 2025-11-23. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
SPY experienced its maximum drawdown of -18.8% from 2025-02-19 to 2025-04-08. It took 79 days to recover.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. SPY delivered -12.8x more return per unit of risk than BTC.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate.
Sortino Ratio
The Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only penalizes negative volatility. SPY had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's particularly useful for assets with asymmetric volatility (big gains, smaller losses). Downside volatility: BTC 29% vs SPY 15.3%.
Understanding Volatility
BTC's annualized volatility of 42.1% means it typically moves ±2.2% on any given day.
SPY's annualized volatility of 19.5% means it typically moves ±1.23% on any given day.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Performance Over Time
| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -0.1% | 1.9% |
| 90 Days | -20.5% | 4.6% |
| 180 Days | -18.7% | 12.9% |
| 1 Year | N/A | N/A |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison
| Metric | BTC | SPY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -6.9% | 18.7% |
| Annualized Volatility | 42.1% | 19.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.06 | 0.77 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.09 | 0.98 |
| Max Drawdown | -32.1% | -18.8% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.03 | 1.00 |