Bitcoin was the first truly permissionless digital currency introduced to the world in 2009 by the pseudonymous developer Satoshi Nakamoto. Bitcoin today has evolved into an entirely new asset class and a store of value. The idea of Bitcoin as a digital store of value or digital gold is mainstream today. However, to follow that vision, Bitcoin changes extremely slowly at the base level, which is appropriate given that it is worth over a trillion dollars in marketcap.
Over the years, millions of new tokens and thousands of new blockchains have been created, trying to capture a share of the market for digital assets. While most of them perished, some have survived over multiple brutal crypto cycles. Solana has emerged as a leader in several categories of smart contract based decentralized applications, most notably memecoins. Solana scaled faster than its competitor Ethereum at the base layer, although arguably being more centralized. Solana has seen immense growth in user numbers over the years, since its launch in 2020. Still, it lives in the shadow of Bitcoin.
Which is a better investment: BTC or SOL?
Over the past year, results are mixed (-18.8% vs -34.9%).
Cite This Comparison
"Bitcoin vs Solana (BTC vs SOL): Returns, Risk & Volatility (2026)." Gale Finance, February 25, 2026. https://www.gale.finance/compare/btc-vs-sol/ Free to use with attribution. Please link back to this page or gale.finance.
Analysis period: 2025-02-26 to 2026-02-25
Relative Performance of BTC vs SOL (Normalized to 100)
Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison
Key Takeaways
- Total Return: BTC delivered a -18.8% total return, while SOL returned -34.9% over the same period. BTC outperformed on total returns.
- Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): Both Sharpe ratios were negative (SOL -0.14 vs BTC -0.32), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; SOL was less negative.
- Volatility (Annualized): SOL was more volatile, with 84.7% annualized volatility, versus 45.6% for BTC.
- Maximum Drawdown: BTC's maximum drawdown was -48.9%, while SOL experienced a deeper drawdown of -68.6%.
- Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BTC's VaR was -3.80% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.71%; SOL's were -6.57% and -9.91%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
- Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BTC -0.15 vs SOL -0.05. Excess kurtosis: BTC 4.43 vs SOL 3.37. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
- Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BTC 9/9, SOL 8/11. Worst day: BTC -11.85% (2026-02-04) vs SOL -20.01% (2025-03-03). Best day: BTC +11.72% (2026-02-05) vs SOL +24.25% (2025-03-02).
- Risk ratios: Sortino - BTC: -0.45 vs. SOL: -0.20 , Calmar - BTC: -0.39 vs. SOL: -0.51 , Sterling - BTC: -0.86 vs. SOL: -0.98 , Treynor - BTC: -0.27 vs. SOL: -0.09 , Ulcer Index - BTC: 18.99% vs. SOL: 32.19%
Bitcoin vs Solana Correlation
Bitcoin and Solana are strongly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.82, these assets tend to move together, limiting diversification benefits.
For portfolio construction, this strong correlation means holding both BTC and SOL provides limited risk reduction — they're likely to decline together in downturns.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current (30-day) | 0.93 |
| Average (full period) | 0.82 |
| Minimum | 0.49 |
| Maximum | 0.94 |
Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement.
Investment Comparison
If you invested $10,000 in each asset on February 26, 2025:
Difference: $1,612.46 (BTC ahead)
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Bitcoin and Solana: Risk Analysis
Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -48.9% from 2025-10-06 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Solana experienced its maximum drawdown of -68.6% from 2025-09-18 to 2026-02-11. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.
Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.
Sharpe Ratio of BTC and SOL
Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. Both Sharpe ratios were negative (SOL -0.14 vs BTC -0.32), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; SOL was less negative.
A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Sortino Ratio of BTC and SOL
Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). SOL had better downside-adjusted returns.
A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: BTC 32.5% vs SOL 58.2%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).
Calmar Ratio of BTC and SOL
Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. BTC posted the higher Calmar ratio.
Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.
Sterling Ratio of BTC and SOL
Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). BTC posted the higher Sterling ratio.
Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.
Treynor Ratio of BTC and SOL
Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. SOL posted the higher Treynor ratio.
Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.
Ulcer Index of BTC and SOL
Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. BTC had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).
Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.
Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitcoin vs. Solana
This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns so multi-day moves add cleanly.
Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.
| Metric (1-Year) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.80% | -6.57% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -5.71% (worst 19 days) | -9.91% (worst 19 days) |
| Skew | -0.15 | -0.05 |
| Excess kurtosis | 4.43 | 3.37 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 9 / 9 | 8 / 11 |
| Worst day | -11.85% (2026-02-04) | -20.01% (2025-03-03) |
| Best day | +11.72% (2026-02-05) | +24.25% (2025-03-02) |
Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year
Computed on shared dates only (n=364). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.
Show downside tail dates
Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).
Days when both BTC and SOL had a big down day (2σ)
| Date (interval) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | -8.63% | -20.01% |
| 2025-04-06 | -6.44% | -11.99% |
| 2025-10-10 | -6.98% | -14.00% |
| 2026-01-30 | -7.07% | -11.27% |
| 2026-02-04 | -11.85% | -12.17% |
Days when BTC had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | -8.63% | -20.01% |
| 2025-03-09 | -6.26% | -7.49% |
| 2025-04-06 | -6.44% | -11.99% |
| 2025-10-10 | -6.98% | -14.00% |
| 2025-11-14 | -5.29% | -4.24% |
| 2025-11-20 | -5.16% | -2.08% |
| 2026-01-28 | -5.42% | -6.36% |
| 2026-01-30 | -7.07% | -11.27% |
| 2026-02-04 | -11.85% | -12.17% |
Days when SOL had a big down day
| Date (interval) | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-03 | -8.63% | -20.01% |
| 2025-04-06 | -6.44% | -11.99% |
| 2025-08-25 | -2.83% | -9.08% |
| 2025-09-25 | -3.84% | -9.18% |
| 2025-10-10 | -6.98% | -14.00% |
| 2025-11-03 | -3.73% | -11.36% |
| 2026-01-30 | -7.07% | -11.27% |
| 2026-02-04 | -11.85% | -12.17% |
Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.
Bitcoin vs Solana Volatility (BTC vs SOL)
Bitcoin's annualized volatility of 45.6% means it typically moves ±2.39% on any given day.
Solana's annualized volatility of 84.7% means it typically moves ±4.43% on any given day.
SOL's higher volatility means a wider path to returns — this can be attractive for tactical, shorter-term exposure, while BTC's smoother profile may better suit long-term allocators seeking steadier growth.
For comparison, the S&P 500 typically has 15-18% annualized volatility, translating to roughly ±1% daily moves. Higher volatility means larger potential gains but also larger potential losses.
Bitcoin vs Solana Performance Over Time
| Metric | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Days | -23.5% | -31.2% |
| 90 Days | -25.4% | -37.8% |
| 180 Days | -37.2% | -57.3% |
| 1 Year | -18.8% | -34.9% |
Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.
Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Solana (1-Year)
| Metric | BTC | SOL |
|---|---|---|
| Total Return | -18.8% | -34.9% |
| Annualized Volatility | 45.6% | 84.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.32 | -0.14 |
| Sortino Ratio | -0.45 | -0.20 |
| Calmar Ratio | -0.39 | -0.51 |
| Sterling Ratio | -0.86 | -0.98 |
| Treynor Ratio | -0.27 | -0.09 |
| Ulcer Index | 18.99% | 32.19% |
| Max Drawdown | -48.9% | -68.6% |
| Avg Correlation to S&P 500 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| 5% VaR (daily log return) | -3.80% | -6.57% |
| 5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR) | -5.71% | -9.91% |
| Skew | -0.15 | -0.05 |
| Excess kurtosis | 4.43 | 3.37 |
| 2σ tail days (down / up) | 9 / 9 | 8 / 11 |
Audit this calculation
Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.
Inputs & conventions
- Shared window for pair metrics
- 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25 (last shared close).
- Rolling correlation sample (shared closes)
- 335 rolling 30-day values (from 364 shared daily returns).
- Annualization (days/year)
- BTC: 365 days/year; SOL: 365 days/year.
- Risk-free rate
- Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:
- BTC: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.
- SOL: 4.20% over 2025-02-26 → 2026-02-25.
- Volatility drag (rule of thumb)
- Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.
- BTC: ≈ -10.4%/yr
- SOL: ≈ -35.9%/yr
- Data alignment
- No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only. For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
- Return conventions
- Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.
Formulas
- Price on day t.
- Simple daily return.
- Log daily return.
- Average daily return.
- Standard deviation of daily returns.
- Annualization factor (days/year).
- Annual risk-free rate.
Bitcoin vs Solana: Frequently Asked Questions
Which has higher volatility: BTC or SOL?
SOL showed higher volatility at 84.7% annualized, compared to 45.6% for BTC Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.
Does BTC provide diversification when held with SOL?
BTC and SOL are strongly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.82. This strong correlation limits diversification benefits.
How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs SOL?
Over the past year, BTC's 5% VaR was -3.80% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.71% (worst 19 days). SOL's were -6.57% and -9.91% (worst 19 days).
Do BTC and SOL crash together on bad days?
On shared dates (n=364), when SOL has a 2σ down day, BTC also does 62.5% (5/8 days). In the other direction, when BTC has one, SOL also does 55.6% (5/9 days).
Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or SOL?
Both assets posted negative Sharpe ratios Over the past year (SOL -0.14 vs BTC -0.32), meaning both underperformed the risk-free rate; SOL was less negative.
Can BTC and SOL be combined in a portfolio?
Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their strong correlation provides limited risk reduction since they tend to move together. SOL's higher volatility (84.7%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.