Bitcoin vs Nvidia (BTC vs NVDA) 2026: Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: BTC or NVDA?

Over the past year, NVDA looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (NVDA +79.9% vs BTC -17.9%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (NVDA 1.83 vs BTC -0.33). On risk, NVDA was less volatile (NVDA 33.2% vs BTC 42.7%), NVDA had a smaller max drawdown (NVDA -20.2% vs BTC -48.9%), and NVDA had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of NVDA -4.14% vs BTC -5.20%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: BTC or NVDA?

Over the past year, NVDA outperformed BTC. NVDA returned +79.9% compared with BTC’s -17.9%. NVDA had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.83 versus BTC’s -0.33. NVDA was less volatile than BTC, and NVDA had a smaller max drawdown than BTC.

Total Return

BTC -17.9%

NVDA +79.9%

Sharpe Ratio

BTC -0.33

NVDA 1.83

Annualized Volatility

BTC 42.7%

NVDA 33.2%

Max Drawdown

BTC -48.9%

NVDA -20.2%

Metric winners: Total Return: NVDA; Sharpe Ratio: NVDA; Annualized Volatility: NVDA (less volatile); Max Drawdown: NVDA (smaller drawdown).

BTC Total Return

↓ -17.9%

NVDA Total Return

↑ +79.9%

Relative Performance of BTC vs NVDA (Normalized to 100)

BTC NVDA

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: BTC delivered a -17.9% total return, while NVDA returned +79.9% over the same period. NVDA outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.33) while NVDA was positive (1.83), indicating NVDA had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): BTC was more volatile, with 42.7% annualized volatility, versus 33.2% for NVDA.
Maximum Drawdown: NVDA's maximum drawdown was -20.2%, while BTC experienced a deeper drawdown of -48.9%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), BTC's VaR was -3.80% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -5.20%; NVDA's were -3.38% and -4.14%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: BTC -0.19 vs NVDA 0.04. Excess kurtosis: BTC 4.48 vs NVDA 0.51. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): BTC 9/9, NVDA 7/6. Worst day: BTC -11.85% (2026-02-04) vs NVDA -5.46% (2026-02-26). Best day: BTC +11.72% (2026-02-05) vs NVDA +7.87% (2026-02-06).
Risk ratios: Sortino - BTC: -0.46 vs. NVDA: 2.85 , Calmar - BTC: -0.35 vs. NVDA: 3.98 , Sterling - BTC: -0.70 vs. NVDA: 3.78 , Treynor - BTC: -0.15 vs. NVDA: 0.34 , Ulcer Index - BTC: 25.22% vs. NVDA: 8.00%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

BTC $8,210.8 -17.9%

NVDA $17,987.22 +79.9%

Difference: $9,776.42 (NVDA ahead)

Bitcoin vs Nvidia Performance Over Time

Metric	BTC	NVDA
30 Days	9.1%	13.9%
90 Days	-12.9%	6.4%
180 Days	-30.3%	7.2%
1 Year	-17.1%	79.9%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Bitcoin vs Nvidia Correlation

Average Correlation

weakly correlated

0.22

Current (30-day) 0.11

30-day rolling range -0.12 to +0.46

Bitcoin and Nvidia are weakly correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.22, these assets show meaningful independence, offering diversification benefits when held together.

For portfolio construction, this weak correlation suggests that combining BTC and NVDA could reduce overall portfolio variance. However, correlations can increase during market stress.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	0.11
Average (full period)	0.22
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.12
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.46

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

BTC

-48.9%

NVDA

-20.2%

Bitcoin experienced its maximum drawdown of -48.9% from 2025-10-06 to 2026-02-04. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Nvidia experienced its maximum drawdown of -20.2% from 2025-10-29 to 2026-03-30. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Bitcoin vs Nvidia Volatility (BTC vs NVDA)

BTC Volatility

42.7%

±2.23% 1-day vol

NVDA Volatility

33.2%

±2.09% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

BTC

±2.23%

NVDA

±2.09%

Bitcoin's 42.7% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.23% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Nvidia's 33.2% annualized volatility translates to about ±2.09% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

BTC had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; NVDA was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Sharpe Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.33) while NVDA was positive (1.83), indicating NVDA had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Sortino Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). NVDA had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: BTC 30.4% vs NVDA 21.3%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Calmar Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. NVDA posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Sterling Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). NVDA posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Treynor Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. NVDA posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of BTC and NVDA

Ulcer Index: BTC vs. NVDA

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. NVDA had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitcoin vs. Nvidia

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: BTC vs. NVDA (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	BTC	NVDA
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.80%	-3.38%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.20% (worst 19 days)	-4.14% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.19	0.04
Excess kurtosis	4.48	0.51
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 9	7 / 6
Worst day	-11.85% (2026-02-04)	-5.46% (2026-02-26)
Best day	+11.72% (2026-02-05)	+7.87% (2026-02-06)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: BTC vs. NVDA (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both BTC and NVDA crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both BTC and NVDA had a big down day (2σ)

Date (interval)	BTC	NVDA
2025-10-10	-6.98%	-4.89%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-6.06%	-4.38%

Days when BTC had a big down day

Date (interval)	BTC	NVDA
2025-08-22 → 2025-08-25	-5.69%	+1.02%
2025-10-10	-6.98%	-4.89%
2025-11-14	-5.29%	+1.77%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-6.06%	-4.38%
2026-01-28	-5.42%	+1.59%
2026-01-30	-7.07%	-0.72%
2026-02-04	-11.85%	-3.41%
2026-02-20 → 2026-02-23	-5.65%	+0.91%

Days when NVDA had a big down day

Date (interval)	BTC	NVDA
2025-10-10	-6.98%	-4.89%
2025-10-14	-1.79%	-4.40%
2025-11-04	-4.59%	-3.96%
2026-01-16 → 2026-01-20	-6.06%	-4.38%
2026-02-26	-2.88%	-5.46%
2026-02-27	+2.40%	-4.16%
2026-03-26	-4.13%	-4.16%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Nvidia (1-Year)

Metric	BTC	NVDA
Total Return	-17.9%	+79.9%
Annualized Volatility	42.7%	33.2%
Sharpe Ratio	-0.33	1.83
Sortino Ratio	-0.46	2.85
Calmar Ratio	-0.35	3.98
Sterling Ratio	-0.70	3.78
Treynor Ratio	-0.15	0.34
Ulcer Index	25.22%	8.00%
Max Drawdown	-48.9%	-20.2%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.41	0.62
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.80%	-3.38%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-5.20%	-4.14%
Skew	-0.19	0.04
Excess kurtosis	4.48	0.51
2σ tail days (down / up)	9 / 9	7 / 6

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): BTC: 365 days/year; NVDA: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

BTC: 4.17% over 2025-04-24 → 2026-04-23.

NVDA: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

BTC: ≈ -9.1%/yr

NVDA: ≈ -5.5%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Bitcoin vs Nvidia: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BTC or NVDA?

BTC showed higher volatility at 42.7% annualized, compared to 33.2% for NVDA Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does BTC provide diversification when held with NVDA?

BTC and NVDA are weakly correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.22. This weak correlation suggests meaningful diversification benefits when held together.

How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs NVDA?

Over the past year, BTC's 5% VaR was -3.80% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -5.20% (worst 19 days). NVDA's were -3.38% and -4.14% (worst 13 days).

Do BTC and NVDA crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when NVDA has a 2σ down day, BTC also does 28.6% (2/7 days). In the other direction, when BTC has one, NVDA also does 25.0% (2/8 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or NVDA?

BTC had a negative Sharpe (-0.33) while NVDA was positive (1.83) Over the past year, indicating NVDA had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can BTC and NVDA be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their weak correlation could meaningfully reduce overall portfolio variance. BTC's higher volatility (42.7%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: BTC or NVDA?

Share This Comparison of BTC vs NVDA

Relative Performance of BTC vs NVDA (Normalized to 100)

Trade BTC or NVDA

Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Bitcoin vs Nvidia Performance Over Time

Bitcoin vs Nvidia Correlation

Drawdown

Bitcoin vs Nvidia Volatility (BTC vs NVDA)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Sharpe Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Sortino Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Sortino Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Calmar Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Calmar Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Sterling Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Sterling Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Treynor Ratio of BTC and NVDA

Treynor Ratio: BTC vs. NVDA

Ulcer Index of BTC and NVDA

Ulcer Index: BTC vs. NVDA

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Bitcoin vs. Nvidia

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: BTC vs. NVDA (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: BTC vs. NVDA (2σ)

Days when both BTC and NVDA had a big down day (2σ)

Days when BTC had a big down day

Days when NVDA had a big down day

Full Comparison of Bitcoin vs. Nvidia (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Bitcoin vs Nvidia: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: BTC or NVDA?

Does BTC provide diversification when held with NVDA?

How bad are the worst 5% days for BTC vs NVDA?

Do BTC and NVDA crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: BTC or NVDA?

Can BTC and NVDA be combined in a portfolio?