Airbnb vs Booking Holdings (ABNB vs BKNG) 2026: Stock Returns, Risk & Volatility

Q: Which is a better investment: ABNB or BKNG?

Over the past year, ABNB looks like the better investment: it had higher total return (ABNB +15.8% vs BKNG -96.3%) and a higher Sharpe ratio (ABNB 0.51 vs BKNG -1.06). On risk, ABNB was less volatile (ABNB 29.9% vs BKNG 101.3%), ABNB had a smaller max drawdown (ABNB -21.5% vs BKNG -97.1%), and ABNB had less severe losses on the worst 5% of days (Expected Shortfall of ABNB -4.62% vs BKNG -29.10%).

Written by Gale Finance Team

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick answer

Which is a better investment: ABNB or BKNG?

Over the past year, ABNB outperformed BKNG. ABNB returned +15.8% compared with BKNG’s -96.3%. ABNB had the better risk-adjusted return, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.51 versus BKNG’s -1.06. ABNB was less volatile than BKNG, and ABNB had a smaller max drawdown than BKNG.

Total Return

ABNB +15.8%

BKNG -96.3%

Sharpe Ratio

ABNB 0.51

BKNG -1.06

Annualized Volatility

ABNB 29.9%

BKNG 101.3%

Max Drawdown

ABNB -21.5%

BKNG -97.1%

Metric winners: Total Return: ABNB; Sharpe Ratio: ABNB; Annualized Volatility: ABNB (less volatile); Max Drawdown: ABNB (smaller drawdown).

ABNB Total Return

↑ +15.8%

BKNG Total Return

↓ -96.3%

Relative Performance of ABNB vs BKNG (Normalized to 100)

ABNB BKNG

Normalized to 100 at start date for comparison

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Key Takeaways

Total Return: ABNB delivered a +15.8% total return, while BKNG returned -96.3% over the same period. ABNB outperformed on total returns.
Risk-Adjusted Return (Sharpe Ratio): BKNG had a negative Sharpe (-1.06) while ABNB was positive (0.51), indicating ABNB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.
Volatility (Annualized): BKNG was more volatile, with 101.3% annualized volatility, versus 29.9% for ABNB.
Maximum Drawdown: ABNB's maximum drawdown was -21.5%, while BKNG experienced a deeper drawdown of -97.1%.
Tail Risk (VaR & Expected Shortfall): At the 5% level (daily log returns), ABNB's VaR was -3.05% and its Expected Shortfall (CVaR) was -4.62%; BKNG's were -3.04% and -29.10%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move on the worst days.
Skew & Kurtosis: Skew: ABNB -0.62 vs BKNG -15.47. Excess kurtosis: ABNB 2.43 vs BKNG 239.47. Negative skew leans downside; higher excess kurtosis means fatter tails.
Tail Days & Extremes: 2σ tail days (down/up): ABNB 7/4, BKNG 1/0. Worst day: ABNB -8.02% (2025-08-07) vs BKNG -95.91% (2026-03-31). Best day: ABNB +5.64% (2025-05-12) vs BKNG +8.46% (2026-03-05).
Risk ratios: Sortino - ABNB: 0.70 vs. BKNG: -1.08 , Calmar - ABNB: 0.74 vs. BKNG: -0.99 , Sterling - ABNB: 0.55 vs. BKNG: -1.04 , Treynor - ABNB: 0.11 vs. BKNG: 1.35 , Ulcer Index - ABNB: 9.95% vs. BKNG: 28.24%

Investment Comparison

If you invested $10,000 in each asset on April 25, 2025:

ABNB $11,580.28 +15.8%

BKNG $368.09 -96.3%

Difference: $11,212.19 (ABNB ahead)

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Performance Over Time

Metric	ABNB	BKNG
30 Days	9.1%	-95.9%
90 Days	7.4%	-96.5%
180 Days	10.8%	-96.6%
1 Year	15.8%	-96.3%

Shorter time frames can show different leaders as market conditions change. Consider your investment horizon when comparing performance.

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Correlation

Average Correlation

moderately correlated

0.39

Current (30-day) -0.09

30-day rolling range -0.26 to +0.80

Airbnb and Booking Holdings are moderately correlated over the past year. With a correlation of 0.39, these assets show moderate co-movement, offering some diversification when held together.

For portfolio construction, this moderate correlation offers some diversification benefit, though the assets still tend to move together during major market moves.

Metric	Value
Current (30-day)	-0.09
Average (full period)	0.39
Minimum (30-day rolling)	-0.26
Maximum (30-day rolling)	0.80

Correlation measures how closely two assets move together. Values near +1 indicate strong co-movement, near 0 indicates independence, and negative values indicate inverse movement. Current, minimum, and maximum figures are 30-day rolling correlations on shared daily returns.

Drawdown

Maximum Drawdown

ABNB

-21.5%

BKNG

-97.1%

Airbnb experienced its maximum drawdown of -21.5% from 2025-07-28 to 2025-11-20. It took 151 days to recover.

Booking Holdings experienced its maximum drawdown of -97.1% from 2025-07-07 to 2026-04-01. It has not yet recovered to its previous peak.

Smaller drawdowns and faster recoveries indicate lower downside risk and greater resilience during market stress.

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Volatility (ABNB vs BKNG)

ABNB Volatility

29.9%

±1.89% 1-day vol

BKNG Volatility

101.3%

±6.38% 1-day vol

1-day volatility (1σ)

ABNB

±1.89%

BKNG

±6.38%

Airbnb's 29.9% annualized volatility translates to about ±1.89% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Booking Holdings's 101.3% annualized volatility translates to about ±6.38% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

BKNG had the wider volatility profile over this window. That means its day-to-day return distribution was broader; ABNB was calmer, but lower volatility does not by itself mean better returns.

Treat the ± daily figure as a one-standard-deviation estimate from historical returns, not a forecast or expected absolute daily move. For context, 15-18% annualized volatility is roughly ±1% one-standard-deviation daily volatility.

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Sharpe Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Return per total volatility

Sharpe gives us excess return per unit of risk. Upside and downside volatility both count as risk.

Higher is better

excess return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of risk (volatility). A higher Sharpe indicates better risk-adjusted performance. BKNG had a negative Sharpe (-1.06) while ABNB was positive (0.51), indicating ABNB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance in this period.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Sortino Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Sortino Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Return per downside volatility

Sortino keeps the return-over-risk idea, but only returns below the target rate count as volatility.

Higher is better

excess return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio measures return per unit of downside risk. Unlike Sharpe, it only counts downside deviation (returns below the target return). ABNB had better downside-adjusted returns.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Downside deviation: ABNB 21.6% vs BKNG 99.1%. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Calmar Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Calmar Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

CAGR per worst drawdown

Calmar compares CAGR against the single deepest peak-to-trough loss over the period.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio compares CAGR to maximum drawdown. Higher Calmar means more return per unit of worst drawdown. ABNB posted the higher Calmar ratio.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Sterling Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Sterling Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Return per average drawdown

Sterling smooths the drawdown penalty by using average drawdown events instead of only the worst one.

Higher is better

excess annual return / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio measures excess return per unit of average drawdown (typically drawdowns worse than 10%). ABNB posted the higher Sterling ratio.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Treynor Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Treynor Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Excess return per market beta

Treynor divides excess annualized return by beta — the sensitivity of the asset to broad-market moves. The slope shown is each asset’s beta vs SPY.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market risk (beta) instead of total volatility. BKNG posted the higher Treynor ratio.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Ulcer Index of ABNB and BKNG

Ulcer Index: ABNB vs. BKNG

Drawdown pain

Ulcer Index is a risk index, not a return-over-risk ratio. Lower means smaller and shorter drawdowns.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index captures drawdown depth and duration. Lower Ulcer Index means less drawdown pain. ABNB had the lower Ulcer Index (less drawdown pain).

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Airbnb vs. Booking Holdings

This section looks at the shape of daily returns, not just the average. Tail stats are computed per asset on its own daily series (crypto includes weekends). We use daily log returns $\ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)$ so multi-day moves add cleanly.

Definitions: Value at Risk (VaR), Expected Shortfall, skew, kurtosis, and fat tails.

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: ABNB vs. BKNG (1-Year)

Actual daily return tails

The bars are real daily log-return observations from the article window. Darker bars are observations at or beyond each asset’s 5% VaR cutoff.

Observed returns

VaR marks the 5th percentile loss cutoff; Expected Shortfall averages the observations beyond that cutoff.

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}=Q_{0.05}(r_t),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%}=\mathbb{E}[r_t\mid r_t\le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric (1-Year)	ABNB	BKNG
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.05%	-3.04%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-4.62% (worst 13 days)	-29.10% (worst 13 days)
Skew	-0.62	-15.47
Excess kurtosis	2.43	239.47
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 4	1 / 0
Worst day	-8.02% (2025-08-07)	-95.91% (2026-03-31)
Best day	+5.64% (2025-05-12)	+8.46% (2026-03-05)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Computed on shared dates only (n=249). A “2σ downside move” means a shared-close log return more than 2 standard deviations below that asset’s own mean on this shared-date series. Dates below show simple returns (%) for readability.

Downside co-move map: ABNB vs. BKNG (2σ)

Shared-close daily returns

Dots mark actual downside days: asset-colored dots are one-sided downside moves, and red dots are joint downside days. Grey dots add sampled shared-return context when available. The shaded lower-left zone shows where both ABNB and BKNG crossed their own 2σ downside threshold.

2σ

Show downside tail dates

Dates below are shared-date observations. The “Date” is the period end (close). Tail thresholds are computed on log returns, but the table shows simple returns (%) for readability. Returns are computed from the previous shared close to this one (for example, Friday → Monday includes weekend moves).

Days when both ABNB and BKNG had a big down day (2σ)

None in this window.

Days when ABNB had a big down day

Date (interval)	ABNB	BKNG
2025-07-29	-3.74%	-1.55%
2025-08-07	-8.02%	-1.88%
2026-01-14	-5.20%	-2.40%
2026-02-03	-7.03%	-9.32%
2026-02-20 → 2026-02-23	-3.85%	-5.05%
2026-03-12	-4.27%	-2.42%
2026-03-27	-6.25%	-3.60%

Days when BKNG had a big down day

Date (interval)	ABNB	BKNG
2026-03-31	+2.58%	-95.91%

Read this as “how ugly the ugly days get”, not as a precise forecast. One-year samples are small, so tail estimates are inherently noisy.

Full Comparison of Airbnb vs. Booking Holdings (1-Year)

Metric	ABNB	BKNG
Total Return	+15.8%	-96.3%
Annualized Volatility	29.9%	101.3%
Sharpe Ratio	0.51	-1.06
Sortino Ratio	0.70	-1.08
Calmar Ratio	0.74	-0.99
Sterling Ratio	0.55	-1.04
Treynor Ratio	0.11	1.35
Ulcer Index	9.95%	28.24%
Max Drawdown	-21.5%	-97.1%
Avg Correlation to S&P 500	0.47	0.31
5% VaR (daily log return)	-3.05%	-3.04%
5% Expected Shortfall (CVaR)	-4.62%	-29.10%
Skew	-0.62	-15.47
Excess kurtosis	2.43	239.47
2σ tail days (down / up)	7 / 4	1 / 0

Audit this calculation

Formulas, inputs, and conventions used to compute the metrics on this page.

Inputs & conventions

Shared window for pair metrics: 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23 (last shared close).
Rolling correlation sample (shared closes): 220 rolling 30-day values (from 249 shared daily returns).
Annualization (days/year): ABNB: 252 days/year; BKNG: 252 days/year.
Risk-free rate: Uses the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield (FRED: DGS3MO), averaged over each asset’s window:

ABNB: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.

BKNG: 4.17% over 2025-04-25 → 2026-04-23.
Volatility drag (rule of thumb): Estimated from annualized volatility (simple returns). For the log-return framing, see Log returns.

ABNB: ≈ -4.5%/yr

BKNG: ≈ -51.3%/yr
Data alignment: No forward fill. Correlation and tail co-moves are computed on shared closes only.
For cross-calendar pairs (e.g., crypto vs stocks), weekend/holiday moves roll into the next shared close.
Return conventions: Volatility/Sharpe/Sortino use simple daily returns. Tail-risk uses daily log returns for distribution stats (but tables show simple returns). Log returns.

Formulas

Daily simple return

r_t = \frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}} - 1

Volatility

\sigma_{ann} = \sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}

Volatility drag (approx.)

\text{drag} \approx \tfrac{1}{2}\sigma_{ann}^2

Sharpe Ratio

S = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sigma(r_t)\sqrt{A}}

Sortino Ratio

So = \frac{A\,\bar{r} - r_f}{\sqrt{\mathbb{E}[\min(0,\,r_t - r_f/A)^2]}\,\sqrt{A}}

Maximum Drawdown

MDD = \min_t\left(\frac{P_t}{\max_{s \le t} P_s} - 1\right)

Average Correlation

\rho = \frac{\operatorname{cov}(r^A,\,r^B)}{\sigma_A\,\sigma_B}

Log returns

\ell_t = \ln\left(\frac{P_t}{P_{t-1}}\right)

Notation

$P_t$: Price on day t.
$r_t$: Simple daily return.
$\ell_t$: Log daily return.
$\bar{r}$: Average daily return.
$\sigma(r_t)$: Standard deviation of daily returns.
$A$: Annualization factor (days/year).
$r_f$: Annual risk-free rate.

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ABNB or BKNG?

BKNG showed higher volatility at 101.3% annualized, compared to 29.9% for ABNB Over the past year. Higher volatility means larger price swings in both directions.

Does ABNB provide diversification when held with BKNG?

ABNB and BKNG are moderately correlated over the past year, with an average correlation of 0.39. This offers some diversification benefit, though they still tend to move together during major market moves.

How bad are the worst 5% days for ABNB vs BKNG?

Over the past year, ABNB's 5% VaR was -3.05% and its 5% Expected Shortfall was -4.62% (worst 13 days). BKNG's were -3.04% and -29.10% (worst 13 days).

Do ABNB and BKNG crash together on bad days?

On shared dates (n=249), when BKNG has a 2σ down day, ABNB also does 0.0% (0/1 days). In the other direction, when ABNB has one, BKNG also does 0.0% (0/7 days).

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ABNB or BKNG?

BKNG had a negative Sharpe (-1.06) while ABNB was positive (0.51) Over the past year, indicating ABNB had meaningfully better risk-adjusted performance.

Can ABNB and BKNG be combined in a portfolio?

Yes, though allocation sizing matters. Their moderate correlation offers some diversification benefits. BKNG's higher volatility (101.3%) means even small allocations can materially impact overall portfolio risk.

Explore our financial glossary

Which is a better investment: ABNB or BKNG?

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Relative Performance of ABNB vs BKNG (Normalized to 100)

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Key Takeaways

Investment Comparison

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Performance Over Time

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Correlation

Drawdown

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings Volatility (ABNB vs BKNG)

Risk-adjusted ratios

Sharpe Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Sharpe Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Sortino Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Sortino Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Calmar Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Calmar Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Sterling Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Sterling Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Treynor Ratio of ABNB and BKNG

Treynor Ratio: ABNB vs. BKNG

Ulcer Index of ABNB and BKNG

Ulcer Index: ABNB vs. BKNG

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape (1-Year): Airbnb vs. Booking Holdings

Tail Risk & Distribution Shape: ABNB vs. BKNG (1-Year)

Downside co-moves (2σ) — 1-Year

Downside co-move map: ABNB vs. BKNG (2σ)

Days when both ABNB and BKNG had a big down day (2σ)

Days when ABNB had a big down day

Days when BKNG had a big down day

Full Comparison of Airbnb vs. Booking Holdings (1-Year)

Inputs & conventions

Formulas

Airbnb vs Booking Holdings: Frequently Asked Questions

Which has higher volatility: ABNB or BKNG?

Does ABNB provide diversification when held with BKNG?

How bad are the worst 5% days for ABNB vs BKNG?

Do ABNB and BKNG crash together on bad days?

Which has better risk-adjusted returns: ABNB or BKNG?

Can ABNB and BKNG be combined in a portfolio?