Affirm Holdings (AFRM): Returns, Risk & Drawdowns

Reviewed by Sid Kalla CFA Charterholder

Quick Answer

What is Affirm Holdings' risk, return, and volatility like?

Affirm Holdings returned +34.5% over the 1Y window. On the 5Y lens, Sharpe ratio is 0.38, annualized volatility is 96.8%, and max drawdown is -94.7%.

Total Return

1Y +34.5%

5Y -19.2%

Sharpe Ratio

1Y 0.72

5Y 0.38

Annualized Volatility

1Y 64.2%

5Y 96.8%

Max Drawdown

1Y -53.9%

5Y -94.7%

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Affiliate disclosure

Price history

Affirm Holdings price over the past 5Y

Track Affirm Holdings's standalone price path with macro and asset-specific events enabled by default.

Affirm Holdings price over the past 5Y

AFRM

Latest close $62.98 Data through 2026-04-23

5Y low $8.91 Window low

5Y high $168.52 Window high

Key takeaways

Total Return: AFRM returned +34.5% over the 1Y window and -19.2% over the 5Y window ; annualized return over 5Y was -4.2%.
Risk-adjusted return: Sharpe was 0.38 and Sortino was 0.60 over 5Y. Sharpe counts total volatility; Sortino focuses on downside volatility.
Volatility & drawdown: Annualized volatility was 64.2% over 1Y and 96.8% over 5Y ; max drawdown was -53.9% over 1Y and -94.7% over 5Y .
Tail risk (Expected Shortfall): Over 5Y, daily VaR (5%) was -8.8% and Expected Shortfall was -13.1%. VaR is the cutoff; Expected Shortfall is the average move inside the worst 5% of daily returns.
Skew & kurtosis: Over 5Y, skew was 0.41 and excess kurtosis was 3.96. Skew shows return asymmetry; excess kurtosis shows how fat the tails were versus a Normal distribution.
Risk ratios: Sortino Ratio: 0.60 , Calmar Ratio: -0.04 , Sterling Ratio: -0.24 , Treynor Ratio: 0.12 , Ulcer Index: 72.28% .

Affirm Holdings Drawdown

AFRM 1Y Max Drawdown

↓ -53.9%

2025-09-19 to 2026-03-27

AFRM 5Y Max Drawdown

↓ -94.7%

2021-11-04 to 2022-12-27

Max drawdown shows the deepest peak-to-trough decline Affirm Holdings suffered in each research window. 1Y: -53.9%; 5Y: -94.7%.

Affirm Holdings is currently -62.6% below its prior peak, with the high-water mark at $168.52. 5Y low is $8.91.

AFRM underwater plot (5Y). Zero means at a prior peak; dips show how far below peak the close was on each day. Deepest trough: -94.7% on Dec 27, 2022.

5Y drawdown episodes

-94.7% Nov 4, 2021 to Dec 27, 2022

Not yet recovered 1631 total days

-38.0% Apr 26, 2021 to May 13, 2021

Recovered Aug 30, 2021 126 total days

-15.9% Sep 27, 2021 to Oct 4, 2021

Recovered Oct 6, 2021 9 total days

Affirm Holdings Volatility

AFRM 1Y Volatility

64.2%

Annualized daily closes

AFRM 5Y Volatility

96.8%

Annualized daily closes

Volatility Affirm Holdings's annualized volatility shows how widely daily closes moved over 1Y and 5Y. Higher values mean a noisier path, not automatically a better or worse investment. 1Y: 64.2%; 5Y: 96.8%.

Benchmark context

Where AFRM fits relative to other lenses

Benchmark links are secondary on this page. Use them when you want to place the asset against a specific market, factor, or historical counterpart.

Default benchmark

S&P 500

SPY

Broad equity benchmark

1Y return

↑ +30.7%

AFRM minus SPY

↑ 0.0%

Correlation

0.49

AFRM vs SPY average correlation

Moderately linked

0.49

QQQ

Nasdaq 100

Corr 0.49

Growth and tech benchmark

1Y return +39.9%

AFRM minus QQQ -9.2%

BTC

Bitcoin

Corr 0.24

Cross-asset crypto benchmark

1Y return -17.1%

AFRM minus BTC +47.8%

XAU

Gold

Corr -0.03

Store-of-value benchmark

1Y return +40.2%

AFRM minus XAU -9.5%

Risk-adjusted ratios

These ratios compare return against different definitions of risk: total volatility, downside volatility, drawdowns, benchmark beta, and time spent underwater.

Affirm Holdings Sharpe Ratio

AFRM 1Y Sharpe ratio

↑ 0.72

Recent window

AFRM 5Y Sharpe ratio

↑ 0.38

Deeper research window

AFRM Sharpe Ratio (5Y)

Return per total volatility

The dot sits at (Affirm Holdings's annualized volatility, its excess annualized return). The slope from the origin to the dot is the Sharpe ratio — steeper means the asset converted risk into return more efficiently.

Higher is better

excess annualized return / total volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sharpe} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_R}

Sharpe ratio Affirm Holdings's Sharpe ratio measures excess return per unit of total volatility. Higher readings mean the asset converted risk into return more efficiently over the same window. 1Y: 0.72; 5Y: 0.38.

A Sharpe above 1.0 is generally considered good, above 2.0 is excellent. Negative Sharpe means the asset underperformed the risk-free rate. Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Affirm Holdings Sortino Ratio

AFRM 1Y Sortino ratio

↑ 1.06

Recent window

AFRM 5Y Sortino ratio

↑ 0.60

Deeper research window

AFRM Sortino Ratio (5Y)

Return per downside volatility

Affirm Holdings's daily-return distribution over the long window. Days left of the target line are the only ones Sortino penalizes in the denominator — so a distribution with a fat left tail produces a smaller Sortino even at the same mean return.

Higher is better

excess annualized return / downside volatility

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sortino} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\sigma_{\mathrm{down}}}

Sortino ratio Affirm Holdings's Sortino ratio isolates downside volatility instead of all volatility. It is the cleaner lens when you care more about bad downside moves than upside noise. 1Y: 1.06; 5Y: 0.60.

A higher Sortino is better. It's useful when upside volatility is common (crypto is the obvious example). Calculated on each asset's full 365-day lookback of available prices, using the daily risk-free rate as the target return, and annualized using the asset calendar (365 for crypto, 252 trading days for equities/ETFs/metals).

Affirm Holdings Calmar Ratio

AFRM 1Y Calmar ratio

↑ 0.64

Recent window

AFRM 5Y Calmar ratio

↓ -0.04

Deeper research window

AFRM Calmar Ratio (5Y)

CAGR per worst drawdown

Affirm Holdings's CAGR bar sits above zero, the max drawdown bar sits below. Calmar is the ratio of those two magnitudes — a shallow drawdown bar with a tall CAGR bar produces a strong Calmar.

Higher is better

CAGR / max drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Calmar} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR}}{|\mathrm{MaxDD}|}

Calmar ratio Affirm Holdings's Calmar ratio measures return per unit of max drawdown. It is useful when the path of losses matters as much as the final return. 1Y: 0.64; 5Y: -0.04.

Calmar is computed on each asset's full 365-day lookback and uses the max drawdown over that same window.

Affirm Holdings Sterling Ratio

AFRM 1Y Sterling ratio

↑ 1.28

Recent window

AFRM 5Y Sterling ratio

↓ -0.24

Deeper research window

AFRM Sterling Ratio (5Y)

Return per average drawdown

The underwater curve shows Affirm Holdings's drawdowns over the long window. Sterling averages every event deeper than the 10% threshold instead of taking only the worst one — so an asset with many mid-size drawdowns scores worse here than on Calmar.

Higher is better

excess CAGR / average deep drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Sterling} = \frac{\mathrm{CAGR} - R_f}{\overline{D}_{>10\%}}

Sterling ratio Affirm Holdings's Sterling ratio compares return against deep drawdown pressure. It gives a harsher read on assets that compound well but suffer ugly declines along the way. 1Y: 1.28; 5Y: -0.24.

Sterling uses average drawdown events deeper than 10% and subtracts the risk-free rate to report excess return.

Affirm Holdings Ulcer Index

AFRM 1Y Ulcer Index

25.10

Recent window

AFRM 5Y Ulcer Index

72.28

Deeper research window

AFRM Ulcer Index (5Y)

Drawdown pain

The underwater curve shows how deep and how long Affirm Holdings's drawdowns were. Ulcer is the root-mean-square of that curve — both depth and persistence count, so lower is better.

Lower is better

root-mean-square drawdown

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{UI} = \sqrt{\mathbb{E}[D_t^2]}

Ulcer Index Affirm Holdings's Ulcer Index measures both the depth and persistence of drawdowns. Lower is better because it means fewer and shallower underwater periods. 1Y: 25.10; 5Y: 72.28.

Ulcer Index is computed from each asset's drawdown series over the full lookback window.

Affirm Holdings Treynor Ratio

AFRM 1Y Treynor

↑ 0.17

Beta 2.76 vs SPY

AFRM 5Y Treynor

↑ 0.12

Beta 3.14 vs SPY

AFRM Treynor Ratio (5Y)

Excess return per beta vs SPY

The line's slope is Affirm Holdings's beta to SPY — steeper means more market-sensitive. Treynor divides excess return by that slope, so an asset can look efficient with a shallow beta and a small return, or inefficient with a steep beta and a big return.

Higher is better

excess return / market beta

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{Treynor} = \frac{\mathbb{E}[R] - R_f}{\beta}

Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of market beta versus SPY. A high Treynor means the asset compensated its market exposure well over this window. A low or negative Treynor means the asset's market risk wasn't rewarded.

Treynor uses beta vs the S&P 500 (SPY) on shared dates and the average 3-month Treasury rate as the risk-free rate.

Affirm Holdings Tail Risk

Tail-risk stats use daily return distributions rather than simple end-point returns. They show how ugly the left tail has been, how severe the worst 5% of days were, and whether returns were skewed toward outsized upside or downside shocks.

The histogram shows the shape of Affirm Holdings's daily log returns over the 5Y window. Bars left of the 5% VaR marker are the worst 5% of days; the ES marker is the average loss inside that tail. Skew and excess kurtosis describe whether the distribution is symmetric around zero and whether extreme days are more common than a Normal distribution predicts.

AFRM daily return distribution (5Y)

Log-return histogram with Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall markers at the 5% left tail.

Days

worst-5% daily return and the average loss inside it

Formula

\displaystyle \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%} = Q_{0.05}(R),\quad \mathrm{ES}_{5\%} = \mathbb{E}[R \mid R \le \mathrm{VaR}_{5\%}]

Metric	1Y	5Y
VaR (5%)	-6.8% Historical daily threshold	-8.8% Historical daily threshold
Expected shortfall (5%)	-9.0% Beyond the VaR threshold	-13.1% Beyond the VaR threshold
Skew	-0.10	0.41
Excess kurtosis	1.50	3.96

Less negative daily VaR and Expected Shortfall values mean the left tail was less violent. Skew and excess kurtosis help distinguish between steady compounding and a path dominated by occasional extreme moves.

Full stats table

Every window-consistent research metric

Each column keeps the same horizon across returns, ratios, drawdowns, and tail-risk metrics.

Metric	1Y Recent window	5Y Deeper research window
Total return	+34.5%	-19.2%
Annualized return	+34.5%	-4.2%
Volatility	64.2% Annualized daily closes	96.8% Annualized daily closes
Sharpe ratio	0.72	0.38
Sortino ratio	1.06	0.60
Calmar ratio	0.64	-0.04
Sterling ratio	1.28	-0.24
Ulcer Index	25.10	72.28
Max drawdown	-53.9% 2025-09-19 to 2026-03-27	-94.7% 2021-11-04 to 2022-12-27
VaR (5%)	-6.8% Historical daily threshold	-8.8% Historical daily threshold
Expected shortfall (5%)	-9.0% Beyond the VaR threshold	-13.1% Beyond the VaR threshold
Skew	-0.10	0.41
Excess kurtosis	1.50	3.96

What viewers usually ask next

What is Affirm Holdings's 5Y CAGR?

Affirm Holdings's 5y cagr is -4.2% on Gale using the past 5 years.

What is Affirm Holdings's 1-year volatility?

Annualized volatility is 64.2% over the past year.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year Sharpe ratio?

Affirm Holdings's Sharpe ratio is 0.38 using the past 5 years.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year Sortino ratio?

Affirm Holdings's Sortino ratio is 0.60 using the past 5 years.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year Calmar ratio?

Affirm Holdings's Calmar ratio is -0.04 using the past 5 years.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year Sterling ratio?

Affirm Holdings's Sterling ratio is -0.24 using the past 5 years.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year Ulcer Index?

Affirm Holdings's Ulcer Index is 72.28 using the past 5 years. Lower is better because it means shallower and less persistent drawdowns.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year max drawdown?

Max drawdown is -94.7% over the past 5 years from 2021-11-04 to 2022-12-27.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year daily Value at Risk?

Using historical daily returns, Gale estimates a 5% Value at Risk of -8.82% over the past 5 years.

What is Affirm Holdings's 5-year Expected Shortfall?

Expected Shortfall is -13.07% over the past 5 years, which captures the average outcome inside the worst 5% of daily returns.

Is Affirm Holdings still below its all-time high?

Current drawdown is -62.6% versus the all-time high of $168.52 reached on 2021-11-04.

Which benchmark should viewers open first for Affirm Holdings?

S&P 500 is the default benchmark lens on Gale because it gives the cleanest context for Affirm Holdings's recent behavior.